Was killing al-Wuhayshi worth it?

Earlier this month, Nasir al-Wuhayshi, the emir of al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) was killed in a U.S. drone strike.  Al-Wuhayshi was not simply the leader of al-Qaeda’s most dangerous affiliate, but also served as al-Qaeda core’s general manager.  This is the highest-level death in the al-Qaeda organization since the death of Osama bin Laden.

Now, whenever there is a targeted killing, it is important to know who the replacement will be as sometimes the terrorist who becomes the replacement is even more dangerous than the terrorist who was killed.  One of the most notorious cases of this was the assassination of Abbas al-Musawi, the co-founder of Hezbollah.  Though he was certainly a high value target, the terrorist who replaced him, Hasan Nasrallah, is considerably more menacing and has gained the reputation of being one of the most formidable terrorist leaders in the world.  

{mosads}As for al-Wuhayshi, we already know the identity of his replacement.  His replacement is Qasim al-Raymi, a co-founder of AQAP and senior military commander.  How will this impact the organization?  Well, let’s take a closer look at this guy first.

Qasim al-Raymi was born in Sana’a in 1978.  In the 90’s he was a trainer at an al-Qaeda camp in Afghanistan.  In 2004, he was imprisoned for five years in connection with a plot to attack five embassies in Sana’a.  He escaped from prison in February 2006 and was al-Wuhayshi’s right hand man for rebuilding al-Qaeda’s fractured group in Yemen.  In 2007, al-Raymi “announced the emergence” of al-Qaeda in Yemen (AQY).  Two years later he was one of the three terrorists in a propaganda video to announce the creation of AQAP.  Al-Raymi has led major operations, and he has plotted against the U.S. embassy and ambassador in Yemen.  It is important to note that al-Raymi also has a personal grudge against the United States aside from the death of al-Wuhayshi.  Qasim al-Raymi’s younger brother, Ali al-Raymi, has been detained in Guantanamo since 2002.        

Though al-Wuhayshi’s death is a major blow for AQAP (as well as al-Qaeda core), al-Raymi remains capable of keeping the organization afloat.  Given his experience as a top military commander, he can make smart decisions on the field and plot extremely devastating attacks.  Although al-Raymi does not garner the same level of respect as al-Wuhayshi, he is certainly well respected as a father of the organization.

Aside from al-Raymi’s actions, the future of the organization is also heavily rooted with how al-Qaeda core treats al-Raymi.  If al-Qaeda core gives al-Raymi a prominent role in the organization as his predecessor once had, it will be business as usual.  However, if al-Qaeda core demotes al-Raymi, he may swear allegiance to ISIS, which would change the course of the ongoing popularity contest between the two groups.

Al-Wuhayshi’s execution was certainly warranted, though it is unclear whether something even worse will emerge.  Al-Raymi is a skilled commander with plenty of personal hatred against the United States.  Therefore, the U.S. should be on high alert for a retaliatory attack by AQAP.  Was killing al-Wuhayshi worth it? Probably, but only time will tell. 

Fleisher is a recent graduate of the University of Chicago, where he studied linguistics and Near Eastern languages and civilizations.  His research focuses on the Middle East and violent non-state actors.