The Iran meal

As I watch the reactions to the Iran deal unfold I cannot help but think this has a lot to do with the Iran meal. What do I mean by that?

Iran has the largest conventional natural gas reserves in the world and about 110 billion barrels of oil known so far in the ground. Investments in the development of the massive South Pars gas field and its many underdeveloped or damaged oil fields could be in the dozens of billions of dollars in the coming years.

{mosads}There are gigantic investment opportunities for any company or person willing to take the risk of doing business in such a complex and fluid country. Iran also has a lot of pent up demand for not just luxury goods, but also many necessities. There are massive investment and trade opportunities in infrastructure, like roads, railroads, water systems, electricity and other systems and more.

There are head-spinning opportunities in the development of many industries, such as food processing, autos, information technology and more. Iran might just get a hold of hundreds of billions of frozen funds to go on a buying spree. It could also unleash 30 million barrels of oil in the few weeks or months after “implementation” of the Iran deal.

The Iran deal could lead to the ultimate happy meal for those who do not mind the potential strategic and security implications of sending hundreds of billions Iran’s way without any real constraint on its non-nuclear behavior.

Please note how so many distinguished “retired” leaders and others of the world’s super elite have joined in the chorus supporting the deal. Note how many countries are now tempering their views towards the deal as it heads to possible implementation and completion. Note how many companies from Europe, Asia and more are lining up to join the Iran meal. Watch how many supporters sign up for the meals.

Ah, yes, there is a sea of money to be made in Iran. And Iran will be happy to be part of that.

Yet, is there any indication that Iran will be less supportive of Hezbollah, of the violent Shia militias in Iraq, of Bashar Al Assad and his vicious Ba’athist gang, and more? Is there any indication that Iran will back off causing troubles in Bahrain, Eastern Saudi Arabia and as far as Latin America and parts of Central Asia?

So far it seems that the important things to some in the so-called international elite are the deal and the meal. Where are regional and international security in all of this?

I remain unconvinced of the effectiveness of this deal even with the hurricane of lobbying and the barrages of group think and public relations.

It is good that Iran might be constrained in its nuclear program over a limited time period. It is good that Iran and other parts of the world talked and will talk about important issues. It is good that Iran is constrained in its ballistic missile developments and arms imports to some extent — although time will tell how that works out. But I cannot help think that it is the meal, and not the deal, that is driving a lot of people to agree with what has happened.

Some worked hard on this agreement, and really excelled in diplomacy. They were given their orders and accomplished their objectives, however strategically limiting and limited they were. I am not talking about those persons. I am also not referring to those who honestly believe this is a good deal (if only in the short run).

I am talking about the many disingenuous supporters of a deal– and there are many. They surely are putting together the ideas for the deals in the meal, rather than thinking about the long-term stability and security of the region and beyond.

Sullivan is a professor of Security Studies at Georgetown University.