Iran deal—strategic decision for America

The Iran deal, which was signed by the P5+1 (five permanent UN Security Council members, China, France, Russia, the U.S. and the U.K., plus Germany) on July 14, 2015, is perhaps the most important policy decision made by President Obama. Unfortunately, the deal also is one of the most contentious topics in American politics in recent history. The well-established political machinery has engaged in intense pro and con campaigns, and new groups have formed on both sides of the issue. Many assertions have been expressed ranging from the main concern that Iran will not deliver and is not committed to the agreement, to Iran is an anti democratic and Islamic fanatic country, to Iran’s sponsorship of terrorism and domination of Baghdad, Damascus, Beirut, and Sanaa, to Iran’s relentless promotion of the mantra, “death to America”.

{mosads}For more than three decades, numerous media reports and scholars have pointed out that the vast majority of Iranians are welcoming to all nationalities and value the western culture and way of life, particularly American. This fact has been demonstrated throughout history. Suffice it to say that the fanatic factions do not speak for a nation of more than 77 million. These dramatic differences in cultural understanding have been overlooked for far too long. In fact, this lack of understanding of the various cultures involved and the imposition of an American style democracy are at the core of the problem with American foreign policy, and are the main points of contention between Iran and the United States. Iraq and Syria, under Saddam Hussein and Bashar Al-Assad, were not democracies, but even so people were living under their own roofs in a functioning society and the majority of people enjoyed a decent standard of living. What do they have now? Nothing! Millions of lives have been destroyed and two to three trillion dollars of taxpayer money, which could have been put to good use in the country, has been wasted. Most importantly, thousands of American lives have been sacrificed, and more than twenty million Iraqis and Syrians are now refugees and homeless.

Serious discussion of the adverse consequences of sanctions and Iran’s isolation over the past decade is too  often ignored. The reason Iran found  its way to the negotiating table is because the sanctions worked. On the verge of a deep economic collapse, Iran desperately needs to restructure its economy. However, lack of experience, an outdated banking system, indecision, and deep paranoia are serious issues within the government. Currently, oil revenues with a market price of $40 a barrel generate $0.57 per capita per day. That represents 1,100,000 barrels a day at $44 per barrel, which generates $44 million per day. Dividing $44 million by 77 million people equals $0.57 per capita per day. Assuming that all other non-oil exports including pistachios, carpets and other minerals cover the cost of production and shipping of the oil, the government’s per capita direct subsidy is at least $0.45 per capita per day, which goes toward fuel, electricity, water, and wheat and flour needed for bread, cooking oil, and feed. This leaves roughly $0.12 per capita per day for government operations, including defense and security, telecommunications, health, education, essential infrastructure, and so on. This economic disparity is precisely why there is a need for restructuring similar to what occurred during the 1990’s in Eastern Europe, Brazil, Thailand, Turkey, Mexico, Malaysia and Indonesia. Economic necessity is the foundation of the Iranian deal, at least from the perspective of Iranian interests. The potential and possibilities are endless. The option to continue the sanctions in the false hope of getting a better deal  will only compound the pain endured by the silent majority of average Iranian citizens and also does not serve American interests. Iranians are a highly skilled and educated society. Opening the door will not only bring economic globalization and prosperity to Iran and other nations,  it is the only avenue to a truly indigenous democracy. The Iran Deal is a pragmatic, peaceful and strategically sound decision.   

Shirvani is a senior fellow with the American Association of State Colleges and Universities. He served as chancellor of the North Dakota University System, as president of California State University Stanislaus and on the Board of Directors of the American Iranian Council.