Strategically, this might be a bit of a problem. But it is peanuts compared to what the EU is currently experiencing. After all, it is directly in their backyard. And we are not just talking about potentially fundamental Islamist governments coming into power.
Instability is a major issue for a lot of other factors, even if moderate governments stay in power. The most obvious is illegal immigration from the entire African continent: Passing uncontrolled through Northern Africa to Europe via Spain, Greece and Italy. And since Turkey abandoned Visas for Maghreb people, another travel channel has been opened.
Hardly less obvious, the Maghreb situation is a paradise in development for Al Qaeda. Terrorism does not only find a huge breeding ground here now, but also a perfect base for “shoot in and out” operations to Europe. And finally, this creates a trade issue for the EU as well.
Here are some facts: 40 percent of the cocaine in Europe comes from this region. Drugs are coming by submarine from South Africa to Africa’s Western coast, after which they are channeled to Europe. A Kalashnikov rifle costs between 10 and 15 dollars in the region and trafficking, including in human beings, is booming.
We have seen in the waters of Somalia how deeply modern pirates can have an influence on waterway traffic by hostage taking of shipping vessels. Imagine what could happen to the Mediterranean then. Both Atlantic powers seem a bit helpless.
The U.S. government only recently took a position on the situation. In fact, the position was rather limited to Egypt, lacking a clear U.S. strategy for Maghreb. Barack Obama called upon Mubarak to insist that he sticks to his promise of more democracy. And Obama called for an orderly transition to a government that is responsive to the aspirations of the Egyptian people.
The EU is even worse. You can hear public statements by decision makers saying that one cannot take a final position yet since one does not know who will finally prevail. Well, that is at least honest. EU leaders have met in Brussels on February 4 to discuss the issue in more detail, but without any tangible results.
The EU’s “Foreign Minister,” High Representative Catherine Ashton, has difficulty coming out with strong enough reactions. Developments following the ‘Jasmine Revolution’ in Tunisia have made this handicap blatantly obvious. Members of the European Parliament blamed Ashton for failing to live up to the demands of her job and playing only “second fiddle” in EU foreign policy.
Guy Verhofstadt, leader of the Liberals in the European Parliament, told her ironically that the only “European” reaction so far had been one by Turkish Prime Minister Erdoğan, who had said that Mubarak must listen to his people and step down.
Both the U.S. and Europe have to act, even though for different reasons. And both have to figure out which countries in the region, by force of stability and shared political and strategic commitments, could be their new partners.
Dr. Andreas Geiger is Managing Partner of Alber & Geiger, a leading EU government relations law firm in Brussels.