Entertainment in the 2010 midterm elections

But entertainment is one thing.  What really matters are the results on Election Day.  When the dust settles on November 2,
2010 (or, more likely sometime later that month, if we are lucky), what will
those results show?  Control of
both chambers is up for grabs.  The
Republicans need to pick up 39 seats to regain control of the House and 10
seats to do the same in the Senate. 
Most analysts are predicting a substantial pro-Republican wave in the
2010 cycle, and it is not difficult to see why.  Any time unemployment sits at 9.6% the party in control is
in serious electoral jeopardy.  The
Tea Party Movement has generated incredible enthusiasm and demonstrated an
equally impressive ability to mobilize citizens in the primary elections, including
many that have not been consistent election participants in the past, much as
Barack Obama was able to do in the 2008 election cycle.  And speaking of Obama, it is clear that
our Democratic President is not terribly popular at this moment in time.  Voters are angry; angry about the
economy, angry at incumbents, and angry at the status quo.  These things all bode ill for the
Democrats as the party currently in charge.  Throw in the fact that a sitting president’s party usually
loses seats in a midterm election and the targeted spending of groups such as
Karl Rove’s American Crossroads, and the ingredients are clearly there for a
Democratic disaster.  It is almost
taken as a given that the Democrats will lose the House, with some estimates
placing their losses at over 100 seats. 
Opinion is more divided on the fate of the Senate, but most believe that
the final party split there will be extremely close. 

So how I do think it will all play out?  Some analysts have developed
complicated statistical models that they use to make their predictions.  Others use extensive, on the ground
research and parse the latest polls to produce their numbers.  I do neither of these, at least not
here.  Instead I will go with the
Sarah Palin method—rely on my gut. 
And here, my gut tells me that the Democrats will indeed lose control of
the House, although the magnitude of their loss will not be as large as some
estimates have indicated.  I’m
thinking somewhere in the neighborhood of between 45 and 60 seats.  I believe that enough Democratic
candidates will be able to localize their races and also rally the Democratic
base.  These developments will, at
least somewhat, stem the national Republican tide in certain individual
contests.  In the Senate, I see the
Republicans coming up a bit short in their bid to take control.  They simply have selected some
candidates who will be hard-pressed to win, even in such a positive GOP
environment.  Give them 5 to 7
additional seats in the Senate.

This all being said, it is possible and even likely that I
will be wildly off the mark here. 
But I am certain of one thing. 
Campaigning is one thing; governing is another.  Regardless of exactly how the 2010
congressional races turn out, the make-up of Congress will change.  Watching the 112^th Congress
attempt to govern will be even more entertaining than watching this election
cycle unfold.