Jeb Bush is the fragile front-runner

In a tight race with no clear leader, Jeb Bush is the “front-runner,” if only for the satisfaction of handing someone, anyone, that fragile title. The 2016 GOP contest is undeniably a marathon that will come down to the very end. At this point, the honor of being named the front-runner is honestly a worthless accolade. The nomination is truly up for grabs; multiple men have a legitimate shot at representing the Republican Party against, presumably, Hillary Clinton, though even that is subject to change. The race is always in flux; however, for now, Bush seems to command an early lead.

The former governor of Florida, son of President George H. W. Bush and brother of President George W. Bush, benefited greatly from Mitt Romney’s recent decision to not try and attempt a third bid at office. That announcement gives Bush the lead within the Establishment and within the party at large. According to a recent RealClearPolitics national poll, Bush received 16.4 percentage points, giving him a 7-point spread over any of the other contenders. In the same poll, Chris Christie came in second with 9.4 percentage points. Mike Huckabee (9 points), Rand Paul (8.6 points), Dr. Ben Carson (8.4 points), Scott Walker (5.8) and Marco Rubio (4.6 points) rounded out the list. When that poll is expanded to include Romney, the 2012 Republican nominee garners 20.7 percentage points. Bush falls to second place and 11.2 percentage points. Romney’s decision not to run essentially giftwraps the front-runner status to Bush.

{mosads}That isn’t to say that Bush is a bad front-runner. Far from it. In a projected general election, Clinton would defeat Bush by 9.2 percentage points. When compared to the other potential GOP candidates, that number positively stands out. Chris Christie would also be defeated by 9.2 percentage points, though the New Jersey governor is expected to garner only 40 percent of the vote while Bush is expected to get 40.5. After Christie, the drop off is severe. Rand Paul is expected to lose by 10.5 percentage points, Huckabee by 14.4, Rubio by 11.5 and Cruz by 15.4.

While Bush may be tied with Christie in regard to expected performance against Clinton, the former is much better liked than the latter. According to a recent FiveThirtyEight study, Christie’s net favorability rating among Republicans a year before the primaries is at a measly +19 percentage points while Bush has a net favorable rating in the mid-30s. Both have high recognition; Christie and Bush have the highest name recognition of any of the potential GOP candidates. Nonetheless, favorability is where Bush pulls away. He is better liked than Rubio, Cruz, Christie, Carson, Walker, Bobby Jindal and Mike Pence. Image matters and, at this stage, Bush has a good one.

The conversation about Bush’s image, however, is one dominated by his famous last name. That lineage could either help or hurt him in 2016 and it’s too early to pinpoint exactly how it will effect his public perception. The Bush last name has been a part of every winning Republican ticket since the 1980 election and approval ratings for the two former Bush presidents are high and climbing. According to a 2014 Gallup Poll, 64% of Americans gave George H.W. Bush a favorable rating. That made him the second highest positively rated living president, behind Bill Clinton by only one percent. Even George W. Bush, with a much-maligned presidency, had a 53% favorability rating in 2014 and that number will only grow. Among Republicans, those ratings are obviously higher. 89% of Republicans have a favorable view of H.W. and 88% have a favorable view of W. Additionally, the Bush organizational network could provide the already financially successful Jeb Bush with even more money for campaign funds. But most voters, Republicans and Democrats, are weary of a political dynasty and could shy away from electing yet another Bush.

However, this Bush could deliver something that the Republicans desperately want: a seat in the Oval Office. After eight years of being shut out of the White House, the GOP needs to nominate someone who is electable and can win a general election. It seems obvious enough, yet neither Romney nor John McCain in 2008 had a broad base appeal. Bush is moderate enough to appeal to Independents and even some liberals disillusioned with Clinton and Conservative enough to appeal to the Republican Establishment. That isn’t to say that Bush is a perfect candidate. He would undoubtedly lose votes with the Libertarian, Tea Party and Christian Conservative sects of the GOP that would like their nominee to be more to the Right. In fact, FiveThirtyEight listed Bush as the second least conservative of all the Republican nominees, beating out just Christie. The list employed a scale, which ranged from 0 (moderate) to 100 (very conservative). Bush scored a 37. To put that number in perspective, Romney and McCain were both 39s. H.W. Bush scored a 33 and W. Bush was rated as a 46. However, the party has become more conservative since Bush left office in 2007 and some of his views are not in alignment with the Republican base. Paul, Walker, Cruz, Rubio, Huckabee, Jindal and the average Republican in the 113^th Congress were all more conservative than Bush. Bush is an outspoken moderate on immigration and education, two hot button issues that could define the primary.

Nonetheless, betting markets put Bush’s chances of winning the GOP nomination at 9/4 odds, the best of any potential candidate. In a race filled with worthy choices, Jeb Bush is the closest thing the Republicans have to a front-runner for 2016. He isn’t without some faults, but the third Bush could very likely end up as the GOP nominee and maybe even the 45^th President of the United States.

Bery is a freelance journalist.