The Big Question: Will Specter win in Pa.?

Alan Abramowitz, professor of political science at Emory University, said:

Most likely not. An incumbent running well under 50% in a primary is in big trouble. Whether it’s Specter or Sestak, though, it’s going to be difficult for Democrats to hold this seat in November without some help from Toomey.

Justin Raimondo, editorial director of Antiwar.com, said:

Arlen Specter is history. This is the year — indeed, the decade — of the insurgent.

Bruce E. Gronbeck, professor of political communication at the University of Iowa, said:

It’s likely that he’ll lose in a close race. With the latest poll suggesting that Sestak will run more strongly against the Republican Toomey and with Specter having to spend too much time recently explaining his party shifts (rather than handling issues affecting Pennsylvanians), he’s not really been able to exploit incumbent advantages in primaries. And his healthcare debate positions haunt him every day of his campaign. In a period of especially vicious political polarization, a moderate, wise old man is not especially well equipped temperamentally to survive. He’s a spectre from a more civilized period of American politics.