Defeating ‘The Donald’ on a debate stage

About a week remains before the first Republican Presidential debate in Cleveland and Trump-mania is front and center on the political stage. According to the most recent Marist and CNN/ORC polls, The Donald currently trumps the Republican field of candidates nationally, while also leading in New Hampshire and narrowly trailing Scott Walker in Iowa. 

Trump’s ascendance in the polls has resulted in some GOP donors and operatives calling for his exclusion from the upcoming slate of debates.  In addition to being unprecedented and impractical, this would be political malpractice.  Trump’s presence on the debate stage in Cleveland on August 6 will be “Must See TV” for an otherwise apathetic electorate fifteen months before a general election.  A television ratings bonanza that showcases a deep field of Republican candidates is the most likely scenario that will emerge. 

{mosads}Trump has five major vulnerabilities on a debate stage the other nine GOP candidates would be wise to attack and exploit:

1.  General Electability – According to the most recent CNN/ORC poll, Trump trails both Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders by wide margins in a general election matchup.  In the same poll, Jeb Bush and Gov. Scott Walker (Wis.) fare much better against the top Democratic contenders.  In the latest Quinnipiac University swing state poll, Hillary Clinton trails Jeb Bush and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) in head-to-head matchups in Colorado, Iowa, and Virginia.  These three battleground states were all won by President Obama in both 2008 and 2012 and represent about ten percent of the total electoral votes required for victory.  Conversely, Trump is viewed unfavorably by almost a 2-to-1 margin by voters in those states.  Republican voters are eager to regain the White House after a long absence and potentially unify control of all three branches of government.  Pragmatism could reign supreme and current polling reveals Trump is not the best-positioned candidate to accomplish these lofty political goals.

2.  Flip-Flops- The phrase “flip-flop” was successfully and repeatedly deployed during the 2004 presidential campaign regarding John Kerry’s vacillating positions on multiple issues, including the war in Iraq.  Trump is susceptible to similar criticism over major issues of importance to Republican primary voters.  The July 12 episode of NBC’s “Meet the Press” included a nearly two minute montage of massive Trump flops.  In an interview with the Associated Press in 1999, he said abortion was a personal decision that should be left to women and their doctors.  In his 2000 book entitled “The America We Deserve”, Trump wrote that he supports a woman’s right to choose.  In the same book, he made a fervent pitch for a Canadian-style, single-payer health insurance system in the United States. 

Finally, Trump has lavished praise on Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton throughout the years.  He referred to Clinton as “terrific” on several occasions and recommended her as Obama’s running mate, while donating to both her personal campaign and The Clinton Foundation.  Trump has recently evolved on all of these issues, but a candidate with deep-seated convictions and a consistent track record is probably most attractive to GOP voters during a debate.

3.  McCain War Hero Flap – On July 18 at the Family Leadership Summit in Iowa, Trump called Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) a loser for failing to win his race for the White House in 2008 and said he was only considered a war hero because he was captured by the North Vietnamese.  Trump later refined his comments about McCain, but stopped well short of a formal apology.  While he still leads in national polls, a Washington Post-ABC News poll released on July 20 indicated support for Trump eroded significantly on the one night that voters were surveyed following the negative comments directed toward McCain.  McCain says Trump owes an apology to every single veteran who was captured and was a prisoner war.  Next Thursday night in Cleveland is the perfect opportunity for the other GOP candidates on stage to further press this volatile issue.

4.  Trump Politician-Businessman Dichotomy – A long and storied career as a successful business mogul is one of Trump’s biggest selling points to voters.  Ever since Trump referred to Mexican immigrants entering the United States as rapists and criminals during his presidential announcement on June 16, his aura as a Teflon businessman has suffered tremendously.  NBCUniversal and Univision ended their relationship with Trump’s Miss Universe and Miss USA pageants.  Macy’s pulled Trump brand merchandise from its stores. All-star chefs Jose Andres and Geoffrey Zakarian dropped plans to open restaurants in the Federal Post Office building and Trump International Hotel in Washington, D.C.  Finally, Mayor Bill de Blasio says New York City won’t be inking any new business deals with Trump and said his administration is reviewing current contracts.  The other Republican candidates in Cleveland should directly attack Trump’s greatest perceived strength as a candidate.  This strategy has empirically previously worked regarding the issue of military experience with John Kerry and business acumen with Mitt Romney.

5.  Simple Solutions to Complex Problems – Donald Trump is attractive to voters because he talks about easily fixing elaborate issues that have continually vexed other politicians.  On the subject of immigration, Trump proposes inexpensively building an impenetrable wall along the U.S.-Mexico border to keep out illegal immigrants.  This would likely cost billions of dollars and faces numerous other environmental, legal, and topographical challenges.  He accuses China of currency manipulation and espionage, but has not yet floated a solution to this complex problem involving the world’s second-largest economy and U.S. trading partner.  Trump says he would achieve more positive results as president in dealing with China and Russia, yet he currently puts his name on ties made in China.  A debate stage that includes numerous governors with a wealth of executive experience is an excellent venue to frankly discuss in-depth solutions, which are currently a shortcoming of Trump’s campaign.

There are over fifteen months until the general election, but Trump’s impressive polling numbers gives nine other Republican candidates a tremendous opportunity in Cleveland next week.  Those willing to directly engage The Donald on his five major areas of vulnerability will be afforded a disproportionate amount of speaking time by the moderators and the opportunity to build campaign momentum.  An extraordinary takedown of Trump during the inaugural GOP debate could yield an encore performance on the very same stage a year later as the Republican Presidential nominee.

Kall is director of Debate at the University of Michigan and Michigan Debate Institutes.