Bush’s New Hampshire problem

Jeb Bush announced recently that he had initiated a significant downsizing of his presidential campaign and that his focus would now narrow to Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada with a particular emphasis on the New Hampshire primary February 9.  This decision appears to be reminiscent of the floundering McCain campaign in the late summer of 2007 when McCain essentially moved to New Hampshire and stayed there almost exclusively until primary day. That strategy did help him to win New Hampshire by edging out Mitt Romney 37 – 32 percent and that win was credited with helping him to squeak out a win in the following state of South Carolina by 3 percent over Mike Huckabee.  That’s why Jeb Bush’s recent decision to concentrate especially on New Hampshire seems to indicate the same “win or go home” situation that McCain faced in New Hampshire in 2007-08.

The stakes will be especially high in New Hampshire for Bush because he isn’t expected to do well in the Feb. 1 Iowa caucuses where he recently registered just 5 percent in the Iowa polls and was in 5th place and well behind the leaders.

{mosads}Putting most of his chips in New Hampshire, however, could be tricky for Bush because that is a state that has never been especially politically friendly to the Bush family.

Dating back 35 years the Bushes have only had modest success in New Hampshire’s presidential primary and it would seem to be an uphill battle for Jeb Bush next February.

In 1980 George H. W. Bush had a head of steam after having upset Ronald Reagan in the Iowa caucuses but Reagan overwhelmed Bush a week or so later in the New Hampshire primary 50-32 percent. That started Reagan on his way to the eventual Republican nomination.

In 1988 Bush #41 – then the vice president – had to come from behind the last weekend of the primary to barely overtake Sen. Bob Dole and win the New Hampshire primary by the slim margin of 38 – 29 percent.  Certainly that was an underwhelming result for a sitting vice president.

In 1992 President Bush made New Hampshire a pivotal state for his re-nomination.  However, his tax hikes as president after his “no new taxes” pledge in 1988 proved to be a central theme in the ’92 New Hampshire primary and Pat Buchanan received 38 percent of the primary vote against the sitting president of the United States and that stunned Bush’s campaign team.

In 2000 John McCain led from the start in the primary over his principal opponent George W. Bush and swamped Bush 49 – 30 percent in New Hampshire.

To further underscore “Bush” problems in New Hampshire, as of late September 2015, Jeb was in 5th place in the NH polls. In July he was in second place in those same polls so his downward trajectory is worrisome to his campaign.

More troubling for Bush in New Hampshire is that same late September poll showed that, among those who say that they voted in the ’08 and ’12 Republican primaries in the Granite state, Bush was in 6th place.  And finally, when likely voters were asked who they would NOT vote for under any circumstances in New Hampshire Donald Trump was named by 25 percent but Bush was second with 11 percent.  That’s not a second place Bush wants to publicize.

But the good news for Bush, and the other candidates, is that in the same poll almost 60 percent of the voters in the state say they haven’t made up their minds.  Only 13 percent say that they have definitely decided how they are going to vote.

Political parties can’t always control what happens during a primary season.  It often turns out different than they planned.  Donald Trump has certainly proven that in 2015.  Maybe New Hampshire will have a surprise in 2016.  Jeb Bush has a lot of work to do if he wants to be that “surprise.”

Goodwin has worked for four U.S. presidents.  He has been involved in seven presidential campaigns.  He lives in the Washington, DC area.