It ain’t over till it’s over

The race for control of the House is far from over. Clearly, Republicans have
the momentum, but this will still be decided on a district-by-district basis.

Right now Democrats have a 39-seat margin. Republicans probably need to pick up
43 seats to get to a majority since there are some Republican seats that could
go Democratic. These include William Jefferson’s (D) old seat in New Orleans; a
Hawaii seat taken by the GOP in a three-way special election when Neil
Abercrombie (D) resigned to run for governor; the Delaware seat that Mike
Castle (R) gave up when he ran for Senate; and the Illinois seat that Mark Kirk
(R) gave up to run for Senate.

Picking up 43 seats is never easy.

Here are some things to look for as we drive to Election Day:

(1) Can the GOP be a truly national party and
pick up seats in the Northeast (Pennsylvania, New York and New England)? The
Tea Party wing of the GOP gives voters in the Northeast real heartburn. Republicans
may need as many as 10 seats in this region to get to 43.

(2) How deep will GOP gains be in the
South? They already hold a majority of the seats in the South but will need to
defeat incumbents in Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Florida,
Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia and Texas to run up their national numbers. They
also will need to win open Democratic seats in Arkansas and Tennessee. Keep an
eye on the South. If a number of white Democrats in the South withstand the onslaught,
the GOP can’t get to 43.

(3) How deep will GOP gains be in the
industrial Midwest? The Republicans must defeat a number of Democratic
incumbents in Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa and Missouri
to reach their magic number. Democrats in that region have problems, but
Republicans are vulnerable on messages dealing with outsourcing of jobs and
privatizing Social Security and Medicare.

(4) Does the West hold for Democrats? The
West is the Democrats’ strongest region. Republicans must pick off some seats
in California, Washington state, Colorado and Arizona to get to 43. This region
reports late on election night, and we may not know anything for certain until
the wee hours.

National generic polling still shows the race for the House to be very close,
with Republicans only leading by a few points. In the words of Yogi Berra, “It
ain’t over till it’s over.”