Democrats are worried, even in states that should be safe

In the blizzard of data about midterm elections, you are always looking for a single item which gives some clarity to the entire gestalt. I believe I have found it.

Since 1900, there have been 28 midterm elections. The party that controls the White House has lost seats in 26 of the 28. When it comes to the U.S. Senate, everybody now is in agreement that three seats held by the Democrats are gone (Montana, West Virginia and South Dakota). I know I projected a possible scenario where South Dakota might stay Democratic — disregard that previous article.

{mosads}Republicans need to take three more now held by Democrats. The conventional picks are Arkansas, Alaska and Louisiana. These three have one thing in common: Two years ago they went big for Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney, and the president is even more unpopular now. North Carolina is the other one that Republicans are savoring over. But the Democratic incumbent, according to the most recent polls, seems to be in the best shape there. In addition, Obama narrowly won there in 2008 and narrowly lost there in 2012.

What makes the Democrats most nervous and deeply worried is that there are three states in which the Democrats were supposed to be in good shape and safe.

New Hampshire — which reports early — is the No. 1 example. Jeanne Shaheen is a former two-term governor and is well-known and was thought to be in no trouble. Six years ago, she beat Republican incumbent Sen. John Sununu. Her Republican opponent is a former U.S. senator — but not from New Hampshire! Scott Brown used to be a senator from neighboring Massachusetts, but he lost his seat two years ago. One would reasonably think that voters from New Hampshire might resent Brown and label him a carpetbagger and not vote for him. But he’s got Shaheen running scared.

In Colorado, the incumbent Democrat is Sen. Mark Udall. Very few observers thought he was in jeopardy. But his Republican opponent is Rep. Cory Gardner — not Ken Buck. And that’s the problem for Udall. Two years ago, Sen. Michael Bennet had the good fortune to face Buck, a Tea Party favorite who turned off moderate Republicans and independents.

Michelle Obama did not help matters when, campaigning for Udall, she called him a fifth-generation Coloradan. He moved there in his 20s. Anybody with a smattering of political knowledge would know he is the son of former Rep. Mo Udall and the nephew of former Secretary of the Interior Stewart Udall. The Udalls are the first family of Democrats in Arizona.

Iowa is another state where Democrats were not supposed to be in trouble. The incumbent Sen. Tom Harkin is retiring and Bruce Braley is presently a House member. He is in a tight race with Joni Ernst. Iowa has never sent a woman to Washington. They very well might, soon.

New Hampshire, Colorado and Iowa went for Obama not once, but twice. But the three Democratic candidates don’t want him to set foot in the state. In previous articles, I hypothesized a creative scene where Georgia and Kansas might save the day for the Democrats, but that might be my fertile imagination. The reality is that, as one non-Democrat, President George H.W. Bush, would aptly say on the eve of the elections, the “Donkeys are in deep do-do.”

Much has been made of the fact that Obama’s base of single women, blacks and Latinos and young people historically don’t vote in midterms. Well, these constituencies should wake up and realize that elections affect their lives and their futures: It’s not okay just to vote every four years, when it’s a presidential election. Every election is important. The U.S. Senate confirms Supreme Court nominees. That in itself should be enough to get these people to vote in off-years. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) is worried enough to send out a last-minute fundraising appeal to longtime Democratic donors saying that if Republicans take over that body, they could try to impeach Obama. You might remember the House indicts, but the Senate actually convicts, and thus can remove the individual from the office.

That’s how ominous it looks the day before judgment day for the Democrats. Democrats are praying to stay alive and fervently hope all those polls and pundits are wrong.

Plotkin is a political analyst and a contributor to the BBC on American politics.