You Predict a Rough November Night for Senate Republicans

If you’re all good psephologists, Republicans are in a lot of trouble and Democrats will be popping champagne corks on election night next year. In our latest Quick Poll! we asked, “In Nov. ’08 Republicans will lose/gain how many seats in the Senate?”

We offered a range of possibilities, but we needn’t have bothered. A whopping 77% forecast that the GOP would lose four or more seats. Another 7% said they’d lose three, and another 4% predicted a loss of two.

A small group (4% of respondents) appeared to be reading different tea leaves from the rest and suggested Republicans would gain four seats. GOP gains of two seats and three seats secured 3% and 2% of the votes respectively. Wins and losses of just one seat secured 1% of votes, and there was zero support for the idea that the chamber’s balance would stay the same.

So, you’re expecting a Republican rout and perhaps a filibuster-proof Democratic majority. Sen. John Ensign (R-Nev.), running the GOP’s re-election campaign as head of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, has a cliff to climb. The other Nevada senator, Majority Leader Harry Reid (D) is, by contrast, probably allowing himself a thin smile.

(A new Quick Poll! question will be posted shortly.)