What Election Day 2009 means

Keep in mind the electorate still has a sour taste in its mouth for all things Republican. So to say the voters are coming out to “send a message” to Obama is not quite accurate. I would argue that the onus remains on the GOP to prove it can lead. It has workable solutions to the day’s most pressing problems. Finally, the Republican Party is fielding candidates with individual characteristics, not cookie-cutter candidates who mouth a party line because it has worked so well in the past. Just compare the two gubernatorial races of Virginia’s Bob McDonnell and New Jersey’s Chris Christie and you’ll see two very different campaigns tailored for two very different states.

Though the results will not significantly change the current balance of power, they will provide some insight into the 2010 midterm elections — where the entire House of Representatives, a third of the Senate and two-thirds of gubernatorial posts are up for grabs.

The 2010 races could either signal the long-term resurgence of the Democratic Party or serve as a rebuke of an Obama administration that has delivered far less than advertised. This rousing point was not lost on the Obama administration, which has been scrambling to bolster support for the Democratic gubernatorial candidates, Jon Corzine (D-N.J.) and Creigh Deeds (D-Va.). While the New Jersey race remains neck and neck, the polls show Republican Bob McDonnell on course to beat Deeds by a wide margin. I predict Virginians will send McDonnell to Richmond’s capitol by a six-point margin (53-47). I am less certain of the New Jersey outcome. I fear we may not know the outcome of that election until sometime in December. But I’ll go ahead and predict Corzine pulls it out by a few thousand votes, simply because the momentum has been shifting his way these past 48 hours.

Yet if the Democrats also lose a traditional Democratic seat in New Jersey, it may indicate that independent voters are swinging away from Obama — the candidate whom they played such a vital role in electing just one year ago.

Of course, the wild card in this election cycle is Doug Hoffman, the Conservative candidate for New York’s 23rd congressional district. The entire political world is watching this race, and for different reasons. It will take months to ascertain the political fallout if Hoffman wins. Questions surround what this means for the GOP in light of this “conservative uprising”: Is the Tea Party movement stronger than many believed? And how does this play among independent voters?

Each of these is a legitimate question. But don’t lose sight of the issue that is turning this race, and that ultimately pushed the Republican out — jobs and the economy. Put simply, Hoffman had a stronger message on that front. And if he wins today, it will be because independents didn’t care about the letter behind his name, and instead believed he was the better man for the one job that matters in Washington: getting this economic train back on the rails.

Williams can be heard nightly on Sirius/XM Power 169 from 9 to 10 p.m. EST.

Visit www.armstrongwilliams.com .