Would Speaker Hoyer Have Gotten the Votes?

The failure of the House of Representatives to pass the financial bailout, or, if you prefer, the federal rescue plan, highlighted divisions within both party conferences.

On the Republican side, where more than two-thirds of members voted against the package, the tally is not all that surprising. Conservatives tend to be highly suspicious of such legislation, and in the House, conservatives are organized and active.

More surprising is that some 40 percent of House Democrats defied Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and voted “nay.”

On a purely political level, some of this is understandable. Vulnerable incumbents, especially freshmen, feel the need to demonstrate independence from their party’s leadership. They are also particularly apt to listen to the voters in their district.

This does not, however, explain why safe Democratic incumbents and committee chairmen such as Minnesota’s Collin Peterson (Agriculture), Michigan’s John Conyers Jr. (Judiciary), Mississippi’s Bennie Thompson (Homeland Security) or California’s Bob Filner (Veterans’ Affairs) defied the Speaker. Nor does it explain how Speaker Pelosi was unable to enlist the support of several Democrats from her home state, including (in addition to Filner) Joe Baca, Xavier Becerra, Grace Napolitano, Lucille Roybal-Allard, Mike Thompson and both Sanchez sisters.

While much has been made of Speaker Pelosi’s unnecessarily partisan speech prior to the vote, Pelosi’s failure to secure the necessary votes — including votes that should have been low-hanging fruit — is what cost the vote.

There’s a certain schadenfreude among Republicans, even some who support the legislation, that Pelosi failed such a big test. Many have pointed out that a Republican would never had brought the vote to the floor unless he was confident he would get the necessary votes — even if that meant keeping a vote open for three hours.

Many also believe that where Speaker Pelosi failed, a Speaker Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) would have succeeded.