An Emerging Consensus?

David Broder and Joe Klein converge on a similar argument in their columns today: Barack Obama is likely to be the next president of the United States and he has yet to transition to a governing posture where he will have to share with the country the hard realities of the new economic landscape.

At yesterday’s New America Foundation panel discussion of top economists and budget experts at the National Press Club, there was a similar convergence on what the realities of that new economic landscape will look like — and it isn’t pretty.

The panel broadly agreed that we are headed for a recession that is likely to cut deeper and last longer than most post-war recessions. The recession is also likely to force significant budget constraints on the next administration that will require an immediate and unprecedented economic plan that will fundamentally restructure domestic and international institutions.

Obama might have to reform Social Security and host a Bretton Woods II within the first 100 days of his presidency (no one had anything hopeful to say about fixing healthcare). There was also some tepid discussion over an additional stimulus package, though most of the panelists were skeptical that the benefit of a package would not be outweighed by the potential harm of allowing Congress to create a pork-laden deficit-enhancing package.

Regardless of the specifics, the plan will sound almost nothing like what Obama the candidate has been talking about on the stump and during the debates (forget about the middle-class tax cut). It will also require an enormous marshaling of public support. In order for Obama to make that transition, he needs to coolly pivot the campaign to address a much larger task than he could have imagined when he decided to run for president.

The views expressed in this blog do not represent the views or opinions of Generations United.