Can Cap-and-Trade Pass the Senate?

Much has been said about the ability of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) to pass the cap-and-trade bill she had staked her reputation on. It was quite a feat indeed, as our terrific reporting team described in The Hill, following the vote.

Rep. Patrick Kennedy (D-R.I.) was pulled out of rehab; Rep. John Lewis (D-Ga.) dragged himself in following back surgery. Even better was the contribution of now-former Rep. Ellen Tauscher (D-Calif.). Tauscher had not only already been confirmed for a new job at the State Department and was supposed to have already resigned her House seat, but was getting married the following day. She stayed not only to vote yes on the bill but also to preside over the controversial debate in the Speaker’s chair.

You have to start somewhere, and the slim win in the House is certainly a start. But gleeful Republicans, who recall an energy tax Democrats passed with President Clinton in 1993 that ultimately helped the GOP take back the House the next year, are cheering the passage of the bill for different reasons.

As The New York Times noted yesterday, the bill was watered down with giveaways to industry in order to attract the necessary votes — steel, refiners, automakers, farmers and forestry were all taken care of — but it’s far from clear that the diluted version can pass the Senate.

Even with Al Franken, the climate in the Senate for a cap-and-trade bill just isn’t great. Democrats from red or purple states now pushing back on a public plan for healthcare are the same ones who are likely to resist this bill.

President Obama is urging the Senate to press ahead with the legislation nonetheless. As the chamber works to bring liberal and conservative Democrats together on healthcare this summer, as well as cap-and-trade, his do-it-all-at-once theory of governing will finally be put to the test. Success or failure on these two ambitious bills will say it all, and the outcome of this leadership test will determine the rest of Obama’s presidency.

DOES THE 60TH VOTE CHANGE MUCH? Ask A.B. returns Monday, July 6. Please join my weekly video Q&A by sending your questions and comments to askab@digital-staging.thehill.com. Thank you.