North Korea today barked back, threatening nuclear war and blaming the “gangster-like” actions of the Trump administration. And although the temperature is rising, the White House is biding its time, putting most eggs in the basket of improving relations with China.
Saying “I don’t think you’ll see red lines,” Spicer said China negotiations are moving in a productive direction and it does appear that the China reset is working.
Hoping that Beijing has an interest in better relations with Washington is a good bet – but expecting that Beijing will be able to steer Pyongyang to denuclearization may be a longshot.
{mosads}With tensions rising on the Korean peninsula, North Korea’s Deputy Ambassador, Kim In Ryong, held a last minute U.N. press conference blaming the military actions of the Trump Administration on the recent escalation of tension.
North Korea’s Deputy Ambassador Kim, in not unexpected bluster, called the Korean peninsula the “world’s biggest hotspot,” blaming the U.S. and South Korea for creating the danger of a thermo-nuclear war, which, he said, may break out at any moment. He took issue with the U.S. bolstering and modernizing its nuclear weapons.
But the most interesting comment by North Korea today was its rejection of the Chinese proposal to freeze nuclear and missile programs in exchange for a halt to military exercises by U.S. and South Korean forces – a proposal that was rejected by the U.S. and South Korea as well. In a U.N. meeting in response to the March North Korea missile test, South Korea’s ambassador Cho Tae-yul said, “This is not the time for us to talk about freezing or dialogue with North Korea.”
Yet, today, North Korea appeared to send a new, more explicit message – that China is not negotiating for them.
Kim said that the rolling back of the hostile policy, meaning the military exercises, is the precondition to solving all the issues, and that they oppose the mixing of the two in a “freeze for freeze” negotiation. Although North Korea has rejected the concept before, the explicit rejection of China’s proposal, which had been laid out by China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, was new.
In essence, the message from North Korea was that Kim Jong Un will defend the country, not China’s President Xi. And, of course, North Korea has the nuclear weapons (whose parts are not supplied by any one source) to back that up.
Vice President Mike Pence, in his tour of the DMZ warned North Korea not to test Trump’s military resolve.
The risks are great: former Defense Secetary William J. Perry warned that the primary danger is that North Korea “might overplay its hand and provoke a military response from South Korea,” which could quickly expand into a larger conventional war, involving the United States and the almost 30,000 troops based in South Korea.
Others believe that North Korea’s continued advancement of its nuclear program presents the risk that the cash-strapped nation will sell its technology to rogue groups.
Today, White House Spokesman Sean Spicer applauded China’s action restricting North Korea coal exports and the continuing dialogue between the U.S. and China. U.N. experts, however, have been skeptical about the ability of nations to avoid having sanctions skirted over time.
For now, the White House has heard from North Korea that it intends to continue to advance its nuclear program, and is biding its time, hoping that relations with China will offer a key. A more fleshed out policy, though, given the North Korean position, is needed.
Pamela Falk, former staff director of a House of Representatives Subcommittee, is CBS News TV & Radio Foreign Affairs Analyst & U.N. Resident Correspondent and holds a J.D. from Columbia School of Law. She can be reached at @PamelaFalk
The views of contributors are their own and are not the views of The Hill.