Bhutto and the Presidential Campaign

How does this affect the presidential race?

That is the obvious question for pundits everywhere in the aftermath of the Bhutto assassination.

Hard to say, but it probably isn’t good for Huckabee or Obama.

It will likely help McCain, Giuliani, Clinton and Biden.

Voters make their decisions based on many factors. Likability, leadership, experience, issues, and other less-noticed things, like appearance, tribalism, religion — these all play a role.

With so many undecided voters still out there, any big news can make a big difference.

Bhutto’s assassination, of course, is big news.

The impressions the candidates have been cultivating over the last year will now come to the forefront. And for McCain, Giuliani, Clinton and Biden, those impressions are best prepared to deal with this kind of news.

For McCain, it is his wartime experience.

For Giuliani, it is his leadership experience in a time of crisis.

For Clinton, it is her White House experience.

For Biden, it is his foreign policy experience.

Each one of these candidates can lay claim to having the most experience to deal with these tumultuous times.

Obama and Edwards are preaching change. People don’t want more change in times of great instability.

Huckabee is preaching something else. But what he is preaching probably won’t help calm the waters in Pakistan.

Neither Romney nor Thompson — neither of whom have great international experience — will benefit from these events. Romney supporters — who are now rooting lustily against Huckabee — may see some advantage to the Arkansas governor’s likely tumble, but they ought to worry more about McCain’s likely rise in New Hampshire.

What happened to Bhutto was tragic, but couldn’t be completely unexpected. Pervez Musharraf himself has survived several assassination attempts.

But in the context of the presidential race, this tragic event will reverberate in many unexpected ways in the next two weeks.