OPINION | Trump could prevent — or start — the next Korean War

There is now some chance of another Korean War that would have catastrophic consequences for all concerned.

World peace and American security are not enhanced by the prospect of North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un and President Donald Trump, two temperamental leaders without a trace of relevant experience to address the crisis at hand, going head to head.

{mosads}There is good news that provides some hope. Trump has highly capable military advisors around him, including national security adviser H.R. McMaster, Secretary of Defense James Mattis and White House Chief of Staff John Kelly. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, who has earned mixed reviews in his current post, has been a voice of reason and an advocate of sound diplomacy toward Korea.

Trump should stop talking and listen to them.

The president should not take one major action, or make one public comment that has not been vetted by them and discussed with them in advance.

There is no doubt that when Trump made his bombastic and ill-advised comment promising “fire and fury” not one of his most valuable advisers favored his using those words, which made him sound like the Korean dictator and not an American president.

Wars often begin with miscalculation. If there are two leaders capable of making huge miscalculations, they are Trump and Kim Jong Un.

I have not until now criticized Trump over North Korea. He inherited a serious problem without obvious solutions. The achievement of a unanimous vote in the U.N. Security Council strengthening economic sanctions against North Korea, with support from Russia and China, was well done by Trump’s U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley.

Trump has made two significant mistakes in recent days. First, his blustering threat of “fire and fury” was ridiculous and absurd. Presidents should not make threats unless they plan to execute them. As Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) wisely said on Tuesday, it is far from clear that Trump has the will or capability of executing his “fire and fury” threat. Was he threatening to wage nuclear or conventional war?

This is a time to listen to the grown-ups: McMaster, Mattis, Kelly and Tillerson. 

The second mistake Trump made, similar to a mistake President Obama made, was to draw a red line. Presidents are well-advised to avoid red lines. The good news and the bad news about North Korea is that the only obvious road to an acceptable solution at an acceptable price runs through China, which has interests mitigating in different directions. Too many politicians use China as a talking point, not a policy, based on a wish, not a strategy.  

Trump and his senior advisors should begin escalated talks with Chinese leaders, aimed at creating a unified position toward Korea, with the goal of Trump visiting Beijing or another Asian capital in the near future for a serious Korea-focused summit that would include China, South Korea and other interested Asian parties.

There is time before North Korea would have the capability of implementing a direct threat to the United States. This time, measured most likely in months, must be used wisely to prevent this threat from becoming realized in fact.

Chinese leaders do not want another Korean War. They do not want turbulence on the Chinese-Korean border. They want stability and order in the region.

Chinese leaders are perfectly capable of manipulating American fears about Korea to their advantage. Trump’s policies toward China have been a jumble of incoherent policy shifts from threatening radical protectionism to imagining China as a friendly ally. Both extremes are wrong.

China should be treated as a nation of objective interests as determined by Chinese leaders. As tensions escalate and the danger of war becomes real, China now has a greater interest in preventing a war on its borders than exploiting the crisis to its advantage. A North Korean nuclear capability that threatens America also threatens China and all of Asia.

Trump should tell the Chinese it is time to put up or shut up on North Korea, in terms that are reasoned and professional, with diplomacy that seeks to address legitimate Chinese interests while protecting the obvious American interest to prevent North Korea from achieving nuclear weapons that could reach our shores.

China, the United States and other Asian nations could construct a policy to offer North Korea an alternative between aggressively enforced economic sanctions or aggressively offered economic incentives to North Korea if the rogue state halts its nuclear program.

China and the United States could agree to guarantee the territorial integrity of North Korea, which would eliminate the purported reason North Korea pursues nuclear weapons, while North Korea would guarantee the territorial integrity of South Korea, with continued American protection.

The recent U.N. Security Council sanctions resolution was a good first step, but China has not fulfilled its obligations under previous sanctions. China must now deliver on its commitment.

Until now, the economic sticks that threaten North Korea have not been fully enforced, and the economic carrots that could benefit North Korea for halting its nuclear program have not even been proposed.

Trump could blunder into another Korean War through bluster and incoherence, or he could prevent another Korean War through diplomatic firmness, resolve and clarity.

The choice is his. The danger is ours.

Brent Budowsky was an aide to former Sen. Lloyd Bentsen (D-Texas) and former Rep. Bill Alexander (D-Ark.), then-chief deputy majority whip of the House. He holds an LL.M. in international financial law from the London School of Economics. 

The views expressed by contributors are their own and not the views of The Hill.