Odds have shifted in healthcare reform

Let’s assume, for the sake of this thought experiment, that opponents of
healthcare reform are merely concerned with their electoral prospects in 2010,
but do genuinely believe healthcare reform is and will remain unpopular. They
can hope either that healthcare reform passes or it fails. Given these two
options, it seems clear opponents of healthcare will clearly be in a better
position if Democrats fail to pass healthcare reform. If healthcare reform
fails, they will have two separate arguments to take to voters: 1) they can
continue their argument that the bill is bad policy and 2) they can argue that
the Democrats are an ineffectual governing group. You can disagree whether
either of these assertions are actually true, but it is surely better to have
two distinct arguments to appeal to voters. On the other hand, if healthcare
reform passes, they can continue to argue it’s bad policy, but will lose the
governing argument. Additionally, the structure of the bill delivers some
immediate benefits to voters, while the damage done by the bill (if Republicans
believe their own arguments) will be slower to materialize.

Conversely, proponents of healthcare reform have almost all the incentives to
deliver a bill for the president to sign. Democrats have within their power
(and the rules of the United States Congress) the ability to proceed and pass
healthcare reform without Republican votes. If they decline to proceed, aren’t
they conceding they were wrong on the policy argument? If they concede the
policy argument, then they would essentially be asking voters to keep them in
power so they can continue not to act on things they are wrong about — hardly a
convincing election slogan. If Republicans are correct in their belief that the
bill is unpopular with voters, Democrats can still campaign on the fact that
they passed something, while simultaneously arguing healthcare reform benefits
are coming with time.

It’s entirely possible I screwed up the logic here and made some unfair
assumptions, but I think this helps explain why the odds of healthcare reform
passing have risen steadily since the nadir following Sen. Scott Brown’s
(R-Mass.) election on Jan. 19. It now seems likely that the president’s 11-page
supplemental to the Senate bill, along with the four Republican ideas he
suggested in a letter to Congress yesterday, will pass before the Easter
recess. It also helps explain why House Minority Whip Eric Cantor (R-Va.) is
suddenly (and disingenuously) offering electoral advice to Democrats and why
Republicans are starting to attack the Senate parliamentarian they hired.

The views expressed in this blog do not represent the views or opinions of Generations United.