In Texas, we say “Dance with the one that brung ya.”
There is no question that the issue of immigration brought Donald Trump from reality TV to the presidential nomination of the Republic Party.
Trump effectively hammered that issue, using it to define his Republican rivals as weak and establish his own conservatism with an enthusiastic base of primary voters.
But Trump is learning firsthand just how difficult and complicated immigration policy is.
If it were simple, it would have already been addressed by policymakers in Washington.
{mosads}Having deployed loose talk and bold language for much of the past 14 months, Trump has unwittingly painted himself as an extremist, and the result is historically low support for his candidacy among Hispanics, the fastest growing demographic group in the country.
Mitt Romney won 27 percent of the Hispanic vote in 2012 as the GOP nominee and he lost nearly every battleground state of consequence to an incumbent president who failed to deliver his promise of immigration reform in the first term.
Most observers believe Republicans must win 35 percent of the Hispanic vote in 2016 to have a chance to win the presidency.
Currently, Trump is winning about 20 percent of the Hispanic vote, which makes Arizona competitive and threatens Nevada, New Mexico, Florida and Virginia, and could effectively guarantee that he will lose the election to Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. There simply are not enough non-college educated white voters to make up for the Hispanic votes that Trump isn’t winning.
It is under this reality that Trump arrives in Arizona Wednesday, the day after the Republican Senate and congressional primaries, to give a speech that was initially sold as a unity rally, but has now been described as a major policy speech on immigration.
Whether a deliberate strategy or not, Trump has appeared to shift to the middle on immigration in the past month, famously admitting a “softening” on forced deportations to Fox News’ Sean Hannity while in Austin, Texas two weeks ago.
Trump needs to accomplish several things with this speech:
• Apologize for past comments that some believed were racist. Trump is not known for showing empathy and offering heartfelt apologies. Maybe there is a generational quality to this fact, but he needs to turn the corner and atone for past comments that many have seen as racist. Mexican immigrants, as a group, are not rapists. He can say he did not mean to communicate it that way when he announced, but apologize that many heard it that way. He needs to personally apologize to Judge Gonzalo Curiel, the native Indianan judge of Mexican heritage whom Trump claimed was biased against him solely due to his ethnic heritage. Apologies on these two controversies would go a long way.
• Admit that deporting 11 million illegal immigrants is not going to happen. Trump will open himself up to flip-flopping charges, but he can say he has not been a policy expert in the past and he has learned that deporting 11 million illegal immigrants would be too expensive, too difficult and too inhumane to accomplish. Instead, he will immediately deport all criminal aliens and then see how just how large the illegal immigrant community is before seeking a consensus solution with Congress. He can say that he opposes a path to citizenship, but could support a path to legal status. He should specifically pledge not to remove citizen children from their illegal immigrant parents.
• Provide substance and clarity. The outlines of Trump’s policy are there, but they have not yet been presented in a coherent fashion. He wants to end sanctuary cities, he supports nationwide e-Verify, he supports deporting all criminal aliens, and yes, he supports building the wall, which should be a physical barrier in urban areas, but virtual in rural areas. He should end the speech with no doubt about where he stands.
• Support legal immigration. Legal immigration reform is critically necessary. We need legal immigrants to come to this country, whether it be to perform low-wage jobs, seasonal employment or to earn an education. It should not take 10 to 15 years to legally immigrate to this country. Trump should call for Congress to enact a streamlined system based on merit and need, not based on family connections.
• Tell his own immigrant story. Unless you are Native American, we are all the descendants of immigrants. Trump should tell his own immigrant story, particularly as it relates to his mother, who came here from Scotland. He should talk about Ellis Island and the role New York has played in building America, through the sweat and labor of legal immigrants over the last 150 years.
Trump has a real opportunity to demonstrate seriousness on his signature issue and move himself to the reasonable middle.
Clinton is offering more executive orders, citizenship for illegal immigrants and a porous border. That is not a sensible plan.
Donald Trump can support an immigration plan that a majority of voters will also support, but he must first apologize, admit mass deportations won’t happen, provide clarity, support legal immigration and tell his own immigrant story.
Mackowiak is syndicated columnist; an Austin, Texas-based Republican consultant; and a former Capitol Hill and George W. Bush administration aide.
This piece was corrected at 9:34 a.m. on Aug. 31, 2016 to correctly note the country from which Trump’s mother immigrated.
The views expressed by contributors are their own and not the views of The Hill.