Faked them out

Now, I understand that there is a difference between the
House and the Senate. But when guys like Sen. Byron Dorgan (D-N.D.), who would
have been pretty hard to beat, and guys like Sen. Chris Dodd (D-Conn.), who
wouldn’t been hard to beat no matter what the polls say, decide to pack it in,
it has reverberations in the lower body.

The most obvious impact is the direct result of the
House-Senate shuffle.

Should Earl Pomeroy (D), North Dakota’s lone congressional
member, decide he needs to upgrade his life and move to the upper chamber, he
gives the GOP a golden opportunity. Should Pomeroy run, he would leave an open
seat in state that is becoming more and more Republican every day in the Age of
Obama.

The same thing applies in Connecticut. Should Chris Murphy
decide to run, it opens up a seat that was held for a long time by Nancy
Johnson, a moderate Republican.

But beyond the direct impact, Dorgan and Dodd’s decisions to
quit give Republicans a boost throughout the nation, and send a signal to the
Democrats that they are in deep, deep trouble.

And it couldn’t happen at a better time. This is the
critical moment, when challengers decide whether it is a go or a no-go. This is
the critical moment when challengers either get their funding or don’t. And
this is the time when members of Congress decide whether they should make
another run at it or decide that the relatively low pay and the grief to the
family just aren’t worth it.

Many Democrats in tough districts, many of whom have been
poorly treated by their Speaker, and many who don’t agree with the president’s
vision for the country, will decide that it just isn’t worth it.

Several House Blue Dogs have already called it a day, and
one decided to switch to a Republican Party that, according to its own chairman,
has no chance to take back the House.

I have been bullish on the Republicans taking back the House
for about six months. Obviously, I didn’t read Mr. Steele’s memo, nor was I
briefed on his brilliant strategy to lull the Democrats into a false sense of
security.

I get it now. So let me say for the record that I was wrong.
The Republicans don’t have a chance to take back the House. There is nothing to
see here. Don’t worry, you Blue Dog Democrats. You can feel free to leave now. Everything
is just fine and dandy for your team to stay in control.

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