The future is wide open

As 2011 dawns and all the political world turns its attention to the GOP presidential
nominating contest, it is worth noting that anything can happen. For example, it
was largely unimaginable a year ago today that Rep. Mike Castle (R-Del.) wouldn’t
be a senator from Delaware if a Biden chose not to run. Same with Sen. Scott Brown
(R-Mass.), a year ago; who expected Massachusetts voters would choose a Republican
to replace the late Ted Kennedy in the Senate?
 
In surveying the broad field of potential GOP contenders — Newt Gingrich, former
Sen. Rick Santorum (R-Pa.), Rep. Mike Pence (R-Ind.), Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas), Sen.
John Thune (R-S.D.), Sarah Palin, Mitt Romney, John Bolten, Donald Trump, Mike Huckabee
and Govs. Tim Pawlenty, Mitch Daniels and Haley Barbour — we can assume that some
of these names will soon fall off the list.
 
At this point, whatever happens will be a surprise. The Republican Party, which
has no leader, has been cleansed by a leaderless movement, the Tea Party. As Matt
Bai described it in his New York Times column this week, this dynamic could lead
to the “most unruly and flat-out fascinating contest Republicans have staged
in 35 years.” Bai notes the last GOP contest that truly kept Republicans on
the edge of their seats was in 1976, when “Reagan channeled a grass roots movement
that was still reeling from what it saw as the ideological betrayal and humiliating
corruption of the Nixon era, just as today’s Tea Party members are smoldering over
the party’s record during the Bush years.” This time, he said, there is no
“default candidate” to turn to.
 
The lack of an obvious No. 2 makes the contest so unpredictable, more exciting and
ultimately more of an opportunity for the GOP to define itself anew. Romney, though
everyone argues he is next in line after 2008, is not safely positioned at the front
of the pack this year. Yes, some big-money people are with him, and he wins big
straw polls, and he might be the most experienced and best-organized candidate who
learned from the mistakes of the first time. But Huckabee now tops the polls of
likely Republican voters and some time spent talking privately with senior Republican
operatives will convince you that his vulnerabilities over his own bout with passing
healthcare reform in Massachusetts could have damaged him irreparably with the grassroots
conservatives who were so decisive in the 2010 midterm elections. (Bai also points
out Romney won fewer delegates than Huckabee did.)
 
People who are in on the conversations say Pawlenty and Romney are in, that Thune
wants to run and so does Barbour. Barbour has had a bad few weeks with his comments
about the segregated South and the use of his state plane, but considering that
he is one of the best strategists in the entire Republican Party and one of the
best-positioned to raise the most money, it is entirely possible that he could be
the last man standing. Palin wants everyone to think she is running, and at this
point, why wouldn’t she want us to think that? Huckabee appears to want in, but
money is a concern.
 
Let’s also stop assuming the Tea Party influence will be decisive in two years.
The Tea Party, which moved both parties to the right, might not ultimately move
the 2012 election in the same direction. As the debate over the role of government
heats up during the next year as the two parties work to cut spending, the 70 percent
of voters who don’t want to cut defense spending or Social Security or Medicare
will have to make choices. They will soon learn that entitlement spending eats up
most of the budget, and their reactions to decisions made in Congress or proposed
by President Obama will likely steer the nominating process as much or more than
the Tea Party will. Does the Tea Party primary purging of 2010 repeat itself in
2012, or will the Republican Party coalesce around an establishment candidate like
Barbour or Daniels?
 
A year has never been longer in politics, given how volatile this electorate is.
There is no telling what will happen come January of 2012.
 
Happy new year!
 

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