A Super Tuesday

Well, so much for the predictions of a dull, boring and uneventful
February. So much for the predictions that Romney’s victories in Florida
and Nevada meant that he had the nomination all locked up.

Voters do have this quite irritating trait of sticking it to the
Washington “know-it-all” class. What was so certain, as jabbered about
on cable news talk-fests and in columns like this one, suddenly gets
turned on its head. When will we ever learn to avoid being so arrogantly
certain of political outcomes?

Hillary Clinton was the inevitable nominee; John McCain was dead in the
Republican primary; Barack Obama was going to have the nomination sewed
up after New Hampshire; Howard Dean was cruising with little opposition.
On and on.

This year has a rather odd dynamic, however. The rise of super-PACs, many contests that are not winner-take-all, serious volatility in the Republican electorate, huge swings in the results in the contests.

Not only did Rick Santorum win yesterday’s elections, he won them by VERY wide margins — two and half times more votes than third-place finisher Romney in Minnesota, a 30-point win over Romney in Missouri, and even beating him by five points when he was supposed to lose big in Colorado.

And let’s not forget Newt Gingrich, whose campaign is basically over. (Another prediction!) Voters have come to realize that debate performances and yelling at the press do not a president make. Santorum has replaced the long list of also-rans, including Gingrich, who were supposed to be the major alternative to Romney.

I will make two points as we move toward the “real” Super Tuesday in March.

First, Romney is going to emerge victorious, if he does, by “winning ugly.” The race in Florida against Gingrich, with a nearly $20 million onslaught of 99 percent negative ads, mail and phones, took Newt out. That is the future for Romney. He has the money, he has the bigger super-PACs, he has the organization and he is ready to do what it takes.

Romney wants, and needs, the focus to be on Santorum. He will tar him with the Washington brush, charge that he will be putty in Obama’s hands and bring up ethics issues to go after the clean, boy-wonder image.

Second, this will come at a pretty high price for Romney. This will not strengthen his chances in November, but weaken them. Look at what has happened to Romney even before the events of yesterday. His negatives, according to a Washington Post poll, have skyrocketed since the fall — his unfavorable was 49 percent, his favorable 31. Among independents, whom he has failed to win so far, his favorable rating has dropped from the mid-40s in late November to 23 percent at the end of January. His negatives have gone from 34 percent to 51 percent.

My guess is that these numbers have only gotten worse in the past few weeks and will get worse still as this race drags on and Romney is required to engage in a nasty food fight with Santorum.

The counterargument is that, like Obama in 2008, a drawn-out campaign season will strengthen Romney. I don’t buy it. First of all, Obama had not been running for president for the past six years and “vetting” him was part of the process. In addition, at this point in time, when the outcome was unclear, 80 percent of Democrats were positive about the field; now only 46 percent of Republicans are positive.

Romney has not gotten stronger over these months; he has become weaker as a candidate. The one exception to that was his debate performances before Florida, but his comments on the poor, his waffling on his tax returns, his defense of carried interest and paying only 13.9 percent in taxes, plus his defense of time at Bain, have only hurt him.

A strong campaign by Santorum will further weaken Romney. And unleashing a fury of negative ads by the Romney campaign will inevitably harm his candidacy, as well. Newt will fade into the woodwork, but Ron Paul will soldier on and win delegates with his crew of committed forces. Even another month, let alone three or four months, will leave the field damaged.

The additional question for all of us to consider now is whether Santorum is real and whether he can mobilize Republicans to his cause in the face of the Romney onslaught. Can he, in fact, win the nomination?

Now, that is one for all us inside-the-Beltway geniuses to consider!