Jeb Bush yes, Ben Carson no

The irony of Republican politics is that Jeb Bush should run for president, but won’t, while Ben Carson should not run for president, but will.

If former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton runs for president in 2016, which seems almost certain, there are only two or possibly three Republicans who would give her a good race. They are 2012 GOP nominee Mitt Romney and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, and possibly former Republican Rep. and current Indiana Gov. Mike Pence.

Today I focus on Jeb Bush. No doubt Bush would have a credible chance to be nominated and elected. No doubt Bush did a respectable job as governor and is the kind of relatively moderate Republican that the party needs. It is no coincidence that House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) is urging Bush to run. Unfortunately for the GOP, he won’t.

{mosads}Republican politics are so nasty, the GOP is so wrapped up with its politically extremist right wing and the GOP primaries will be so unpleasant, that Jeb Bush will take a pass. Some in his family do not want him to run, and the very fact that he wants to steer the party in more moderate directions, and the opposition to him within the GOP will be extreme, the prospects of running are so unpleasant that he will ultimately decide against it.

On the other hand, Dr. Benjamin Carson, whose claim to fame is misusing a prayer breakfast to insult President Obama, and whose purpose in politics is to sell books to the right-wing faithful, will run. Of course Carson would be obliterated in a general election by Clinton, which is why Republicans will reject him — if he does not blow himself up politically beforehand.

My guess is that in the end, 2016 will shape up with a “Draft Mitt” movement, or a Hillary Clinton landslide, but watch Mike Pence. If he runs and shows some depth and skill as a campaigner, in the end he might be the last GOP hope to prevent the next Clinton inaugural.

Budowsky was an aide to former Sen. Lloyd Bentsen (D-Texas) and former Rep. Bill Alexander (D-Ark.), who was then chief deputy majority whip of the House. He holds an LL.M. degree in international financial law from the London School of Economics. Contact him at brentbbi@webtv.net.