For Biden, is third time the charm?

In 1988, his presidential hopes flamed out amid plagiarism charges. In the 2008 Democratic primary, he registered less than 1 percent of the vote in Iowa, leaving him no choice but to again abandon his presidential hopes. In 2015, speculation has reached a fever pitch as he ponders another presidential run. Do Hillary Clinton’s sinking poll numbers and a Donald Trump-led GOP field offer a pathway to victory for Vice President and two-time presidential contender Joe Biden?

{mosads}As the August doldrums take hold, the Washington chattering class is abuzz about a potential Biden run. Reported meetings with progressive darling Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.); meetings with donors; and of course, ‘permission” from President Obama all pave the way for Biden to enter the 2016 fray. Though Clinton’s vulnerabilities have been exposed and she continues to be dogged by the email controversy, her historic candidacy (still) buttresses her against a surging Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and a bombastic Donald Trump (R). However, Biden’s authenticity, shoot-from-the-hip style and everyman persona will attract the white working-class male, an endangered species within the Democratic Party. Unfortunately, that voting demographic does not outweigh the women’s vote that a Clinton candidacy would command in a general election.

Yet if the 2016 election season has forged a theme thus far, it is genuineness and candidates like Sanders and Trump lead the pack in this category. Both men are captivating on the stump, generating large crowds and media attention. Moreover, each continues to rise in the polls. Trump clearly leads the GOP field by double digits and Sanders is leading in some polls in New Hampshire, a state Clinton won in the 2008 Democratic primary. These tell-it-like-is pols (yes, like it or not, Trump is a politician) are seen as deeply genuine and “Scranton Joe” — with more than three decades on the national stage — has a monopoly on the genuine franchise.

Still, high name ID and the vice presidency aside, Biden has many hurdles to climb. Entering the race at such a late stage will have the Biden campaign scrambling to secure donors as well as establish effective ground games in the early voting states of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina. Adding to this list of hurdles, current polls show Biden trailing both Clinton and Sanders in early primary voting. His lead over GOP front-runner Donald Trump, by wider margins than Clinton, does offer a glimmer of hope. Of course, this only matters if Biden has a plausible path to the party nomination.

The verdict is still out on a Biden run but make no mistake, his ongoing flirtations with a possible presidential run are already impacting the primary and will only create greater fluidity in an already tumultuous campaign season. Should Biden decide to make a third run for the White House, he immediately brings instant cache and credibility to the Democratic field and will push Clinton in a way that perhaps even Sanders cannot. His foreign policy credentials will lead the field in a race that will be dominated by the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS), Iran and a rapidly cratering Chinese economy. Moreover, his straight talk will be a welcome contrast to Clinton’s sometimes rehearsed and seemingly packaged delivery. Furthermore, his extensive career in the U.S. Congress could be seen as vital in helping thaw relations between the White House and Capitol Hill after eight years of Obama’s aloofness.

Like former Gov. Jeb Bush (R-Fla.), Biden will have to tackle questions of fire and desire for the rough-and-tumble of a presidential run. Already, Bush is facing similar questions from donors that perhaps his heart is not in a presidential run. Biden, too, will have to overcome these hurdles as underlying concerns will exist; particularly in the wake of the tragic death of his son, Beau. This alone could render a possible Biden candidacy dead on arrival.

Unquestionably, Biden is a political survivor. After two spectacular flame-outs as a presidential candidate, many did not see him as a running mate for the first African-American president in U.S. history. Now he has successfully served in two winning presidential campaigns. Equally important, it is inconceivable he will make the same mistake of Al Gore, the last sitting (Democratic) vice president to run for president, and run away from the Obama legacy. Maybe, just maybe, after a long and storied political career marked by remarkable highs and stunning lows — with a few head-scratching gaffes along the way — the third time will be the charm for loquacious Joe.

Ham is a national political analyst and bestselling author of The GOP Civil War: Inside the Battle for the Soul of the Republican Party. Follow him @EKH2016.