The Iowa Straw Poll is dead; long live the Iowa Straw Poll

Love it or hate it, the pre-caucus Iowa Republican Straw Poll as we know it is dead. The poll was held in the summer every four years before the Iowa caucuses, and was held six times for every contested race since 1979. It served the Iowa Republican Party well as a fundraiser, and allowed Republican candidates to meet and speak with Iowa Republicans before the first-in-the-nation caucus in a relaxed and semi-intimate forum. It also allowed candidates to test their messages, get feedback and build a strong ground game the well before the caucuses.

{mosads}The reasons for the demise are many; take your pick. Perhaps the most commonly voiced criticism is that in the six times the poll was held, the winner of the Iowa Straw Poll went on to win the Iowa caucuses only three times for that same election cycle. Moving forward, critics say the winner won the Republican presidential nomination only twice for that same election cycle.

Only? Are you kidding me? Anyone with even a superficial knowledge of statistics knows picking half the winners out of a pool of dozens of candidates over six contests is a darn good percentage, and picking the eventual Republican candidate a third of the time is a good return. Two other winners eventually won the nomination, but not that same election cycle. The real problem is that in 2011, the success of then-Minnesota Rep. Michelle Bachmann didn’t serve the needs of the national party.

The Iowa Republican Party incorporated some reforms in an attempt to keep the Iowa Straw Poll going this year, but when Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad (R) said it had outlived its usefulness, and when several candidates indicated they weren’t going to attend, the Iowa Republicans smartly folded the event.

But there’s a new Iowa Straw Poll. And it was held this year for the first time and in August. Iowa Secretary of State Paul Pate (R) held the first Iowa State Fair Poll at the fairgrounds during the 10 days of the fair. This is a great idea by Pate: Iowans from all over the state, from both rural and urban areas, come to the fair. Candidates also come and and speak from the fair “soapbox,” and Iowans can test their measure. Pate did the former poll even better though, as he included Democratic candidates in the mix. A total of 9,008 individuals voted — more than in a standard poll — and here are the results, ranked by the number of votes by party.

Republicans

• Donald Trump: 29.92 percent; 1,830 votes
• Ben Carson: 19.37 percent; 1,185 votes
• Sen. Ted Cruz (Texas): 8.88 percent; 543 votes
• Carly Fiorina: 7.50 percent; 459 votes
• Sen. Marco Rubio (Fla.): 6.05 percent; 370 votes
• Gov. Scott Walker (Wis.): 5.30 percent; 324 votes
• Former Gov. Jeb Bush (Fla.): 5.10 percent; 312 votes
• Gov. Bobby Jindal (La.): 3.68 percent; 225 votes
• Former Gov. Mike Huckabee (Ark.): 3.07 percent; 188 votes
• Gov. John Kasich (Ohio): 2.62 percent; 160 votes
• Sen. Rand Paul (Ky.): 2.98 percent; 182 votes
• Former Gov. Rick Perry (Texas): 2.24 percent; 137 votes
• Gov. Chris Christie (N.J.): 1.08 percent; 66 votes
• Former Sen. Rick Santorum (Pa.): 1.06 percent; 65 votes
• Sen. Lindsey Graham (S.C.): 0.64 percent; 39 votes
• Former Gov. George Pataki (N.Y.): 0.38 percent; 23 votes
• Mark Everson: 0.13 percent; 8 votes
• Former Gov. Jim Gilmore (Va.): 0.02 percent; 1 vote

Democrats

• Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton: 49.19 percent; 1,338 votes
• Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.):44.74 percent; 1,217 votes
• Former Gov. Martin O’Malley (Md.): 4.67 percent; 127 votes
• Former Gov. Lincoln Chafee (R.I.): 0.74 percent; 20 votes
• Former Sen. Jim Webb (Va.): 0.66 percent; 18 votes

Given that Trump and Carson both outdistanced more establishment candidates, perhaps the problem wasn’t with the Iowa Republican Straw Poll that was cancelled by the Iowa Republican Party this year. Perhaps instead it is Iowa Republican voters who don’t follow the party line.

A Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll released late last month mirrors the fair poll. It shows Trump maintaining a huge lead, with 23 percent support, followed by Carson in second place with 18 percent. All other Republican candidates remain in single digits.

On the Democratic side in the Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics poll, Clinton leads with 37 percent support, and Sanders closing in at 30 percent. Biden, not in the race, polls at 14 percent.

There is one thing Iowans of both parties seem to agree on: With the rise of Trump and Carson on the Republican side and Sanders for the Democrats, establishment candidates are in trouble. At least in Iowa.

Leonard covers the Iowa caucuses for KNIA/KRLS Radio in Knoxville and Pella, Iowa. He’s the author of Yellow Cab and more.