As we head into the holiday season, keep in mind one thing about polls in the presidential race: They change — and by the time voters start voting Feb. 1, 2016, they can change dramatically. That doesn’t mean today’s top candidates will sink to the bottom, or today’s bottom feeders will rise to the top, but it does mean big shifts can abruptly occur.
{mosads}Four years ago at this point in the GOP nomination contest, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (Ga.) was leading former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney 37 percent to 22 percent in one national poll. Of course, Romney went on to win the nomination.
Twelve years ago at this time in the 2004 Democratic nomination battle, Vermont Gov. Howard Dean was leading the field in Iowa with 26 percent, followed by U.S. Rep. Dick Gephardt of Missouri with 22 percent, Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts with 9 percent and Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina with 5 percent. A month later, Iowa voters scrambled the deck chairs, and Kerry won the state with 38 percent, followed by Edwards at 32 percent, Dean at 18 percent and Gephardt at 11 percent. Kerry was eventually nominated.
Things can change, and fast.
Voters view presidential elections through kaleidoscopes. At certain moments they focus, give it a turn — and then everything shifts. We’ve already seen that kaleidoscope turn a few times in the ongoing battle for the Republican nomination.
- Two years ago, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie was polling the best of all the GOP candidates, capturing 16 percent. He was followed by former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, each with 11 percent.
- One year ago, Bush was the top candidate with 14 percent. He was followed by Rep. Paul Ryan (Wis.) at 11 percent and Sen. Rand Paul (Ky.) at 10 percent. Ryan, now Speaker of the House, ultimately didn’t run.
- Six months ago, Bush was first with 22 percent and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker was second, nipping at Bush’s heels with 17 percent. Businessman Donald Trump was in last place, polling a scant 1 percent. But a week later, after Trump declared his candidacy, the New York billionaire shot up to 11 percent, putting him in second place. Within three weeks, Trump zoomed to first place with 17 percent. Just a couple of months thereafter, the once rising Walker withdrew after polls showed him suddenly collapsing following weak debate performances.
Now, the average of the two latest polls taken right before Tuesday’s debate had Trump on top with 40 percent, followed by Texas Sen. Ted Cruz at 15 percent, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio at 11 percent, Carson at 11 percent and Bush at 4 percent. Where it goes from here, nobody really knows.
Polls are pictures in time. As voters focus and refocus, numbers fluctuate. That doesn’t mean polls are wrong, it only means events and minds change. Polls are not crystal balls.
Here’s good advice for election handicappers: Don’t get stuck in a December mindset about a race that may look very different by Valentine’s Day.
Remember the kaleidoscopes.
Faucheux is president of Clarus Research Group, a nonpartisan polling firm based in Washington. He’s authored or edited seven books on politics and publishes Lunchtime Politics, a daily newsletter on polls.