Is Trump unstoppable?

There is considerable chatter in the media about whether Trump is unstoppable for the Republican presidential nomination, or whether there’s still time to beat him.


The answer is no, he’s not unstoppable yet. And yes, there is still time to stop him. But time is running out.


To clinch the nomination, Trump still needs two big things to happen.

First, he needs to win at least eight of the 10 primary states on March 1, including Georgia, Virginia, Minnesota and Alabama. If he does this, he will cement a giant delegate lead. This means Trump can afford to lose Texas, plus one other state. Most polls now show Sen. Ted Cruz leading his home state of Texas.

{mosads}Trump’s remaining risk, at that point, would be if either Sen. Marco Rubio (Fla.) or Cruz are able to get him into a one-on-one race. That’s a risk that should not be underestimated.
 Polls show a two-way contest could be competitive. In a head-to-head race against only Trump, Cruz would throw down the ideological gauntlet and run as the “real” conservative. Rubio, however, would be in the best position to coalesce an anti-Trump coalition: very conservative voters who now support Cruz and retired physician Ben Carson plus “establishment” voters who support Ohio Gov. John Kasich or supported New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie or former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush before the latter two suspended their campaigns.

Second, Trump then needs to win at least five of the eight state primaries between March 5 and March 15, particularly Florida, Michigan, Illinois and North Carolina. He’d also need to win some of the caucuses during that period to show depth and reach. This means Trump can afford to lose the Ohio primary to favorite son Kasich, plus two other states. It also means Trump has to slay Rubio in his home state of Florida.

If Trump accomplishes all of this — tough tasks, but possible based on present polling — the New York billionaire would then have so much momentum and such a commanding delegate lead that he would be unstoppable.

Faucheux is president of Clarus Research Group, a nonpartisan polling firm based in Washington. He also publishes LunchtimePolitics.com, a daily newsletter on polls.