1,237 is not an ‘artificial number,’ Mr. Trump

In many ways, Republican front-runner Donald Trump fancies himself a numbers guy. His constant recitation of poll numbers is a staple in his stump speeches and he now repeatedly mentions the increased percentage of vote totals in Republican primaries as opposed to decreases on the Democratic side. “The biggest story in all of politics are the millions of people that are coming out to vote for me, in all fairness, for the Republican Party,” he told “This Week” host George Stephanopoulos via telephone on Sunday morning.

{mosads}”They’re up 75 percent, 72 percent, 102 percent, different states in the primaries, and it’s the single biggest story worldwide in politics is what’s happening, and the millions and millions of people that are going out to vote, for me. Now I will say — the Democrats are down 35 percent whereas the Republicans are up over 70 percent and some cases, much more than that,” Trump continued, before stumbling around a defense and denial of a question from Stephanopoulos regarding Trump’s warning of riots if he’s denied the nomination.

His peppering of numbers into his verbose hyperbole is a highly effective tactic. He throws them around like a professional juggler, making everyone dizzy while watching his show. For his supporters, it’s confirmation that the movement is real. For his detractors, it’s a chipping away of defenses; a continuous pounding on the rock until it finally cracks. The man who owns the numbers also holds the key, the theory goes.

But there is one number that Trump so far has been unable to crack: 1,237. Contrary to Trump’s recent claims, the number 1,237 has a preciseness to it: It is exactly half the number of total delegates, plus one. It is the barest minimum qualifier imaginable. It is merely passing; a hair beyond acceptable. But Trump will most likely not reach the threshold before the Republican convention in July. So, he’s taking a different tack: He’s tearing down the number down as an insignificant threshold.

On March 10 in Miami, during the most recent Republican debate, Trump gave us a glimpse into how he plans to win this final, most obstinate battle. “I think whoever gets to the top position as opposed to solving that artificial number that was by somebody, which is a very random number, I think that whoever gets the most delegates should win.”

This is a very shrewd move by Trump. Pounding away at the validity of long-ago-agreed-upon minimum qualifiers weakens the threshold’s significance. “Who cares about the finish line, Trump won!” his supporters are claiming. In recent days, Trump has taken the argument to its logical next step. “I think we’ll win before getting to the convention, but I can tell you, if we didn’t and if we’re 20 votes short or if we’re 100 short and we’re at 1,100 and somebody else is at 500 or 400, because we’re way ahead of everybody, I don’t think you can say that we don’t get it automatically. I think it would be — I think you’d have riots. I think you’d have riots,” Trump told CNN’s Chris Cuomo on March 16.

Naturally, Trump’s mention of potential riots drew significant attention and scorn. But overlooked, again, is his attempt to juggle numbers through the air without finding them a logical home. His propensity to do so has to make mathematicians cringe. In July, if Trump has 1,100 delegates, it will be impossible for “somebody else to be at 500 or 400.” If Trump has 1,100, the other delegates up for grabs have to have gone somewhere. “Somebody else,” presumably Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), won’t be at 500 or 400, he’ll be at 800, 900 or more. Still very close. Still very relevant. And handing the nomination to Trump before he qualifies solely because he is leading goes against our longstanding definition of winners and losers. It in fact, goes against Trump’s own binary, zero-sum world view.

Trump likes to tout his endorsement from Brian France, the CEO of NASCAR. Perhaps France could share with Trump the sport’s rules for declaring a winner. For a car to be declared the winner, said car has to cross the finish line.

So as the nominating process races toward the convention in Cleveland, Trump will continue to try and claim inevitability at every turn. And anti-Trump factions will continue to insist he actually finish. Perhaps the greatest irony is that the man who claims winning as his No. 1 virtue wants to be handed the nomination without actually winning it. The man who touts his prowess in making great deals wants to be awarded the job before actually closing it.

Trump believes he has the numbers on his side. But almost getting to 1,237 delegates is not winning. And in a brutal betrayal by the numbers that Trump so wants to own, the fact that he likely won’t get there chips away at his top argument for the job.

That’s the beauty of numbers: They can be juggled and propagandized in the interim, but in the end, they never lie. In the end, they identify the winners and losers. And despite his protestations, the numbers — particularly the biggest one — haven’t identified which column Trump belongs in yet.

Hale is a freelance writer who resides in San Antonio with his wife and three children. He has written for Sports Illustrated and NBC Sports but his first, true love has always been politics. The machinations carried out by otherwise good people are his glorious, guilty pleasure.