There are five remaining presidential candidates. Somewhat remarkably, the five candidates each represent a clear and distinct set of policy preferences and a long tradition in American politics. As the primary season stumbles toward its end, after a long and protracted campaign, the candidates have given the American public a clear choice. It is unclear however whether any of them will have much lasting appeal outside of their “lane.” Moving from left to Trump, here are the candidates and their historical antecedents.
Sen. Bernie Sanders (D-Vt.): In case you hadn’t noticed it, Sanders is the candidate of the left. While he often cites European countries, he does have predecessors in the United States. He is the ideological heir of the late Sens. Eugene McCarthy (D-Minn.) and George McGovern (D-S.D.). The left has been absent from the main stage in American politics for nearly a generation (former Rep. Dennis Kucinich, Democrat of Ohio, ran in 2004 and 2008 but got little traction). Sanders’s views of an increased role for the state domestically and something of a withdrawal from the international stage is a combination that has not gotten this close to the presidency since McGovern’s 1972 campaign.
{mosads}Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D): Clinton represents a combination of progressive domestic policies and an internationalist outlook. We have seen this worldview in the Oval Office with Presidents Kennedy, Johnson and the secretary’s husband. These presidents tend to support government intervention domestically, but are very aware of the opposition to such interventions and are prepared to negotiate with that opposition. The results are progressive policies, but the magnitude of these policies depend on the level of opposition (Johnson had an overwhelming Democratic majority in Congress and gave us the Great Society, President Clinton did not and gave us the Children’s Health Insurance Program). Internationally, these Democrats have led the nation through conflicts in Korea, Vietnam and Bosnia.
Gov. John Kasich (R-Ohio): On the other side of the party divide, Kasich has emphasized balanced budgets, anti-abortion bona-fides, and an internationalist outlook. He most resembles many of the recent Republican nominees for President (George H.W. Bush, Bob Dole, George W. Bush, John McCain and Mitt Romney). Like these presidents and candidates, Kasich would carry the water for conservative causes but also would compromise with the Democratic opposition in order to secure his most important goals. As with Hillary Clinton, international policy would likely become more interventionist than it has been under President Obama.
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas): Just as Sanders has brought the left wing of American politics back to the forefront, Cruz harkens back to the late Sen. Barry Goldwater (R-Ariz.), who secured the 1964 nomination for the Republicans. Goldwater believed in a small government and wanted to see a severe cutback in government spending and regulation. Goldwater also advocated not merely an interventionist foreign policy, but an aggressive one much like Cruz’s advocacy of seeing whether “sand can glow in the dark.” One major difference between Cruz and Goldwater is Cruz’s embrace of the religious right, which Goldwater largely scorned.
Donald Trump (R): While Trump’s appeal crosses party lines, he evokes a long populist tradition in American politics. Numerous presidential scholars have compared Trump to the late Alabama Gov. George Wallace, the segregationist candidate in 1968. Trump combines an affection for government programs that help his (largely white) constituents with an opposition to those which help others. He has a largely isolationist public policy that takes the guise of “America first,” which is also a hallmark of American populism.
None of the candidates evoke the presidential icons of the parties, Franklin Roosevelt or Ronald Reagan. Both of those master politicians could appeal across these bright lines. Roosevelt unified the supporters that Sanders has courted, those of Clinton and some of those of Trump. Reagan created the modern Republican coalition that is now represented by the three Republican candidates. The next president will either be similar to many of our recent Presidents (candidates Clinton or Kasich) or someone who represents a distinct slice of the American public (candidates Sanders, Trump or Cruz). With no Reagan or Roosevelt in the race who can move those who may disagree with them, it is unlikely that the next president will be one that changes the trajectory of the American timeline.
Shapiro is an associate professor and director of the Public Policy Program at the Bloustein School at Rutgers University and a member of the Scholars Strategy Network.