Trump is squandering his general election head start

Who would have predicted that the Republican race for president, with 17 candidates, would end before the one-on-one race on the Democratic side? Or that the Democratic convention in Philadelphia would be more unpredictable than the GOP convention in Cleveland?

This cycle, there have been a lot of poor predictions, including some made by me.

What matters now is how candidates and campaigns adapt to a roiling political environment.

{mosads}Donald Trump earned the Republican nomination, winning more votes than any previous Republican presidential candidate.

The Republican primary effectively ended May 3, when Trump handily won the Indiana primary over Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), forcing Cruz to drop out. Kamikaze pilot Gov. John Kasich (R-Ohio) sensibly followed by dropping out the next day.

In the month since that has transpired, Trump’s campaign has done some good things:

• The campaign struck a joint fundraising agreement with the Republican National Committee (RNC), which allows them raise large contributions together.
• Trump earned the endorsement of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and, more recently, Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.). Trump has made pilgrimages to Capitol Hill to meet privately with members of Congress to win them over.
• Trump has begun raising money nationally, something he didn’t really do in the primary.
• Trump released a list of judicial candidates for any Supreme Court opening that was widely praised.
• Several super-PACs have been established to support him in the general election.

These are helpful developments.

But while the Democrats have been bitterly divided for the past month, Trump has mostly squandered his unexpected head start.

He continues to commit unforced errors:

• He chose to insult popular Hispanic Gov. Susana Martinez (R-N.M.) while campaigning in her state. Martinez is the chair of the Republican Governors Association.
• He continues to claim he is under an IRS audit and cannot release his tax returns, when his tax firm said he is not under audit and every major party candidate in the modern era has released tax returns.
• He continues to defend Trump University, which is currently embroiled in two lawsuits, rather than simply settle the cases and put it behind him.
• In one of the Trump lawsuits, this week Trump personally insulted the sitting federal judge, who is of Mexican heritage but was born in Indiana, claiming he could not be impartial due to his heritage. His lawyers have not filed a motion for recusal.
• He continues to claim he has not said things that he has clearly said relating to nuclear weapons proliferation, the U.S. military action in Libya and even his original support for the Iraq War.
• He refuses to run a targeted, data-driven campaign, instead attempting to run the same earned media campaign in the fall that he ran in the Republican primary.
• He has raised a series of conspiracy theories about likely Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton and her husband, President Bill Clinton, which are from 30 years ago and have been adjudicated already.
• He continues to have only one communications aide, Hope Hicks, who does an excellent job responding to media inquiries, but who is clearly overwhelmed by the volume.
• He hastily fired his national political director, Rick Wiley, an operative with close ties to the RNC.

These are errors of judgment, temperament and strategy.

Why isn’t Trump building a strong general election campaign, with a focus on the battleground states that will determine the election?

Why isn’t Trump narrowly focused on the Rust Belt, where his populist and nationalist message, especially on trade, will resonate?

Why isn’t Trump raising massive money online, given his huge platform and large crowds?

Why isn’t Trump growing as a candidate, showing discipline, restraint, intelligence and substance?

Trump’s campaign needs to show growth for its candidate. He needs to unveil a serious platform on the major issues facing the country. He needs a stable of surrogates that can defend him on television effectively.

But most important, Trump needs to stop talking about things only he cares about. He needs to focus instead on what voters care about.

This election will be a “change” election: Whether Trump represents positive change, or a risky choice, will determine who wins.

Three factors will greatly impact this election:

1. Will Hillary Clinton be indicted over her email scandal? If not, does the FBI forward a criminal referral and if overruled by the attorney general, are there massive resignations?
2. Does the Republican convention, with the revelation of Trump’s vice presidential choice, effectively market Trump to a large national audience in a way that broadens his support?
3. Does Trump pass the commander-in-chief test in the televised debates?

Successful answers on questions No. 2 and 3 will require the candidate and the campaign to significantly raise their game.

Clinton is a terrible candidate. She’s been taken into the bottom of the ninth inning by a 74-year-old socialist who cannot perform simple math.

She is under FBI investigation for both mishandling classified information and for “public corruption” relating to the Clinton Foundation, as Fox News reported in January.

The GOP should be able to win this election.

Can Trump begin running a serious campaign by demonstrating discipline, growth, substance and leadership?

The last month has not been encouraging.

Mackowiak is syndicated columnist; an Austin, Texas-based Republican consultant; and a former Capitol Hill and George W. Bush administration aide.