7 convention ‘musts’ for Republicans
As the GOP convention kicks off in Cleveland, the Donald Trump campaign must be reasonably pleased with where things stand.
{mosads}Their rollout of the vice presidential running mate, while a bit awkward, was well received by the vast majority of elected officials and most conservatives, with Gov. Mike Pence (R-Ind.) serving as a safe, credible choice who is helping unify the party.
The RealClearPolitics average has presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton ahead by only 3.2 percentage points, with new national polls showing the race with a 5-point margin or less.
This is an important week for the Trump-Pence campaign, as millions will tune in to the convention in prime-time and thousands of reporters scour Cleveland for any negative news that they can find.
Here are the strategic imperatives for this convention:
1. Trump must be (easily) elected on the first ballot. After shrewdly defeating the “Free the Delegate” challenge inside the Convention Rules Committee late last week, the Trump campaign must pass the convention rules on the floor and elect Trump with a majority of delegates on the first ballot. Anything other than this result will be a mortal wound and plunge the convention into chaos.
2. Trump’s family gets to soften his image. Members of the Trump family will be speaking at the convention, with press-savvy adult children — Donald Jr., Ivanka, Eric and Tiffany — each moving from able campaign surrogates to national figures. The easy path would be to parrot their father’s talking points. Instead, they should seize an opportunity to tell stories of their father that show a different side of him than we already know. Ivanka is a star in her own right and she has huge potential. Can she mix in policy with the personal? Convention attendees, and the broader public, will be eager to see Trump’s somewhat-shy wife Melania make her national debut also.
3. Unify the GOP, finally. While some hardline conservatives continue to boycott the Trump-Pence ticket, major party conventions serve to unify the foot soldiers behind the commanding general, for the good of the party. I suspect all major criticism of Trump, particularly from elected officials, will cease after this week, as it only serves to hurt the down-ballot GOP candidates. So far, Trump hasn’t shown much interest in uniting the party, until he smartly selected Pence for that purpose. Can he make overtures this week to finally and fully unify the party?
4. Focus the criticism of Clinton. So far, GOP criticism of Clinton has been all over the place. She is routinely called “corrupt,” “incompetent,” “weak” and a “continuation of Obama.” The negative message against Clinton needs to be much more focused. We know public polling shows two-thirds of the general electorate views Clinton as not trustworthy. The recently concluded FBI investigation provides nonpartisan fodder that Republicans can honestly cite. Criticism of Clinton needs to remain in the bounds of what is factual. Her four years as secretary of State were a disaster, but to make that case it requires expertise and calm explanation best left to foreign policy experts like U.S. Sens. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) and Tom Cotton (R-Ark.). Benghazi criticism is fair, but it must be true. She did ignore dozens of requests for additional security. She did refuse to participate in the State Department Inspector General investigation. She did lie to families of those killed, in falsely blaming an internet video, while telling the Egyptian foreign minister that the real cause was terrorism. There is an effective case to be made against Clinton, but it must be narrow and deep, not wide and shallow.
5. Positively define Pence. Soon after Pence was selected to be Trump’s VP, polls showed nine out of 10 Americans didn’t know who he was. The race is on to define him. His Friday appearance on Fox News’ “Hannity” and Sunday’s joint appearance with Trump on CBS’s “60 Minutes,” will help, but Pence must deliver a strong VP acceptance speech, which will serve as his introduction to a national audience. You only get one chance to make a first impression. Pence is a strong communicator and I expect him to rise to the challenge. He has the potential to be a very effective advocate for Trump.
6. Trump must deliver an outstanding nominating speech. Trump is a global celebrity, but he will never have a television audience this large watch him as he will this Thursday night. They will not be watching him as a reality show boss or a celebrity, but as a potential president. Can he appear focused, substantive, strong and positive, and offer a unifying vision that sharply contrasts with a “third term” of President Obama? He cannot meander as he does on the campaign trail. The stakes are too high and the network prime-time is far too valuable. He only gets one chance to accept the nomination of the Party of Lincoln.
7. Get a poll bounce. If all or most of these objectives are fulfilled, Trump will get a poll bounce, probably as little as 3 points, perhaps as large as 10 points. This will create a virtuous cycle where the party and donors will step up even more to help his campaign. But it may be short-lived, as Clinton is expected to name her VP this Friday, the day after the GOP convention ends.
This week, Trump has a golden opportunity to unify the party, have his family show his softer side, positively define his VP candidate and appear to be a credible president of the United States in front of millions of people.
By Friday morning, we will be able to independently evaluate whether the convention was a success.
Mackowiak is syndicated columnist; an Austin, Texas-based Republican consultant; and a former Capitol Hill and George W. Bush administration aide.
The views expressed by Contributors are their own and not the views of The Hill.
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