You didn’t think I was going to write about the Republicans, did you ? How could John McCain’s challenge possibly hold anyone’s attention in the face of the Democratic drama?
To me, today’s news of the letting go of campaign manager Patti Solis Doyle by the Hillary Clinton campaign isn’t the headline, although it is interesting and likely important at some level. No, the delegate brawl is everything, and I imagine what we think of now as a nail-biter fraught with back-room dealings and secret ways to change the outcome will only get worse. To start with, does anyone know that Clinton has no delegates in Michigan and Florida to seat? You have heard about those voices she wants heard, right? Well, the only voices we are going to hear out of those two states are the sounds of delegates alloted by a proportion decided by the Democratic National Committee’s credentialing committee, or the voices that speak in re-votes that will be caucuses instead of primaries. Those do-overs would clearly favor Barack Obama and Clinton will fight hard to prevent them from being held. Which begs the question: Do those “voices” know all of this?
We move on to those super-delegates who are now receiving fiercely friendly phone calls from Bill Clinton, who offers quick trips down memory lane to the time he helped them and essentially made their careers. Obama’s people call super-delegates, too, reminding them of their freedom to change their pledge, especially if their state and congressional district has voted for him. The important thing to remember about super-delegates is not how many Clinton has that Obama wants to take away, but how many remain undecided. Delegate counts differ between every news outlet but taking the highest count I have seen (HRC: 263 vs. BO: 175), it looks like 358 remain unpledged. That’s a lot of people who will have to answer the question the Obama campaign will pose to them: The party or the people?
Clinton’s campaign troubles are worth noting because they speak to her executive decision making. Solis Doyle, aide to Hillary since 1992, scheduler in the White House and close friend, was promoted beyond her abilities to run a presidential campaign without the proper experience. The most loyal of loyalists, Solis Doyle found herself “layered over” three weeks ago, with Maggie Williams brought in to help out. Now Williams, another former chief of staff and member of the Hillary family, has become campaign manager, also without the proper experience. Finally, though she had to loan herself $5 million in January, Clinton also paid $4.3 million to the firm of her pollster, Mark Penn. Fascinating fact: McCain has not had a pollster since June.
As we look to Texas and Ohio, both Clinton and Obama need to take deep breaths. For Clinton, should Obama have the momentum after tomorrow’s primary in Maryland, Washington, D.C., and Virginia, three weeks will be three lifetimes. For Obama, it is enough time for Team Clinton, faltering yet still formidable, to turn much around. If any campaign can do it, they can.
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Don’t you LOVE the ’08 race? Send your questions for my Valentine’s Day edition of Ask AB, this Thursday, Feb. 14. Write me at askab@digital-staging.thehill.com.