A Final Prediction

by A.B. Stoddard - 10/16/08 2:07 PM ET

Today is the one-month anniversary of my prediction that John McCain could and perhaps would win this election. He was ahead with all key demographic groups, ahead in the battleground states and positioned in a close race to win.

Then came the fall of Lehman Brothers, the rest of Wall Street and the end of Palin-mania as she stumbled to answer questions in televised interviews. It all happened at once, and became — to use what is now a cliché — the perfect storm for Obama.

I added the caveat that all my predictions are wrong, and it appears I was right at least about that. Today the map shows Barack Obama controlling the momentum nearly everywhere — from battlegrounds like Florida, Ohio, Michigan, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada, Virginia, Minnesota and Pennsylvania to red states like North Carolina, where he is even with McCain, or Indiana and West Virginia, where he is, frighteningly, only a few points behind.

Will it be a blowout? I don’t think so. Late deciders in the primary chose Hillary Clinton over Obama and I believe that if a voter has resisted Obama for nearly two years, he or she is likely to choose McCain or stay home on Election Day. Again, I could be wrong. Also, McCain’s strongest debate yet could sway a few lean-McCain undecideds who wanted to see him fight for limited taxes and show some leadership on their issues one last time.

But again, look at the map. Montana and Georgia are light pink, not red. Obama is ahead in the aforementioned states as well as North Dakota, Wisconsin, New Hampshire and, in some polls, Missouri. McCain’s path to 270 electoral votes looks more and more tortuous all the time, and he is traveling to North Carolina this weekend to defend home turf for Republicans.

Finally, the groups that were swinging wildly to McCain during Palin-mania are swinging wildly to Obama now. Women, men, seniors, you name it.

McCain can still win because, well, anything could still happen and McCain can’t ever be counted out until he’s truly out. And my record for predictions (look back at the primary predictions) is consistent. Consistently wrong.

CAN JOE THE PLUMBER SAVE MCCAIN? Ask A.B. returns Monday, Oct. 20. Please join my weekly video Q & A by sending your questions and comments to askab@digital-staging.thehill.com. Thank you.