The Debate that Really Won’t Matter

Unless Barack Obama really chokes, tonight’s debate really won’t move the needle of public opinion in John McCain’s favor. Oh, plenty of Americans will be watching, but I would wager that a dwindling few of them remain truly “undecided.” This month’s financial mess has served to crystallize in voters’ minds what they were sensing in their guts for far longer — that the Republican Party just isn’t up to the task of addressing the serious issues facing our nation right now.

To be clear, that’s not to say that the GOP can’t return to its once-dominant role as the party of prosperity. But for now, Americans aren’t buying what Republicans, at any level, are selling.

The more I think about it, the more I’m convinced this goes beyond just having a bad year of Abramoff-type scandals, bathroom-stall encounters and federal indictments. Those don’t help, but the larger problem is one of losing their own identity.

The party I knew fought against wasteful spending at all costs; they didn’t take the path of least resistance when faced with tough choices, as congressional Republicans often did with Bush in the White House. I’m not piling on here, but we all know the first step toward recovery …

So why does this matter to John McCain, you ask? After all, he’s the un-Bush, the one who takes on establishment Republicans. Well, yes and no. Yes, he is an independent-minded thinker, but he’s still brushed with the same coat of paint that has stained the entire party this election cycle. And no, in these final four weeks, McCain will not need to go on the offensive, and that means trotting out some tired lines about the tax-and-spend liberal tendencies of Obama. That sort of hackneyed message just doesn’t appeal to the glassy-eyed hopes of young voters.

Irrespective of his policies and their impact on the electorate, Sen. Obama has elevated above those arguments. Tonight’s debate once more will allow him to look presidential. And that’s why you won’t see too much movement in the polls later this week.

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