Palin Prediction

Everyone thinks Sarah Palin won’t be able to handle her vice presidential debate tonight since, well, she is unqualified to be vice president. While I am usually wrong, I think she will have a great night.

I describe the many reasons why in my column today, but simply put, the likelihood that a) Biden makes a mistake and b) Palin delivers a good performance is strong. I watched one of Palin’s gubernatorial debates from two years ago in Alaska and, though the stakes were different and so was the subject matter, she was confident, comfortable and self-contained — nothing like the person we have seen in those interviews. I believe all she has to do is do better than the interviews and not stumble.

That said, that doesn’t mean a “win” tonight means anything in the end. John McCain isn’t likely to see a stark reversal in the poll trajectory if Palin hits it out of the park tonight. The damage done in those interviews may be irreparable. Voters who are undecided are more skeptical, not less, and if they decided Palin is cramming for a job she is unqualified to do, then no successful performance will convince them otherwise.

MCCAIN DIDN’T SPEAK ON THE BAILOUT BILL YESTERDAY — WHY DID HIS CAMPAIGN DECIDE IT WOULDN’T BE HELPFUL? Interesting call. Ask A.B. returns Monday, Oct. 6. Please join my weekly video Q & A by sending your questions and comments to askab@digital-staging.thehill.com. Thank you.