Presidential Prediction

by A.B. Stoddard - 09/16/08 2:51 PM ET

This election is now John McCain’s to lose. Seriously, look at the map of the Electoral College and see where the excitement over Sarah Palin has solidified his standing. In places Barack Obama dreamed of competing and was getting close, McCain has passed him by. Bright red. In some blue states where Obama is ahead, McCain suddenly is nipping at his heels.

I predict that McCain wins on Nov. 4 and that he will win white women handily, the bloc to push him over the edge. Loyal readers know my predictions are almost ALWAYS wrong, but I wanted to get on the record early since this time I truly think I am right.

Look at how close McCain is in New Jersey. Should Obama waste any more time and money in places like Montana, Georgia or North Carolina? Probably no longer. What happened to Obama’s leads in New Mexico and Nevada? Gone. Can he play in Florida? Sure doesn’t look that way. Meanwhile, McCain is surging in Wisconsin, too, and has taken the lead in Ohio. Obama still has leads in Colorado and Iowa, but how long will they last?

Obama needs to watch his back in New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Michigan. The Palin phenomenon truly positions McCain in Michigan, where Obama is clinging to a lead. The place should be an easy victory for Democrats this year but has turned out to be anything but. That good-for-nothing mayor of Detroit wouldn’t resign for the longest time, keeping Obama out of the state where he had never campaigned to begin with in the primary season. The Kwame Kilpatrick scandal has put Obama in a corner — anger black voters by criticizing Kilpatrick or anger white voters by saying anything else. Obama has largely chosen to hide out.

One thing is clear: If McCain flips Michigan — with the highest unemployment rate in the nation — in this of all Democratic years, this game is over.

DO YOU KNOW ANY PERSUADABLE, UNDECIDED VOTERS? What are they considering at this late stage of the game? Ask A.B. returns Tuesday, Sept. 23 — Please join my weekly video Q&A by sending your questions and comments to askab@digital-staging.thehill.com. Thank you.