Obama’s Tightrope

While Robert Novak’s column last week questioning Sen. Barack Obama’s failure to close the deal among white Americans, despite his overwhelming personal and organizational advantages, may have struck some as a bluntly crafted attack, it nonetheless reflects a fundamental problem with his campaign at this point.

For some reason, even whites who might be open to voting for Democrats in this election are apparently reluctant to vote for a black candidate. That’s why Obama’s (D-Ill.) strategy to try and mobilize the black vote in swing states is especially problematic.

Traditionally, Democrats have used fear of racism to whip a largely apathetic black electorate into a frenzy. This cynical equation will not, however, work for Obama. Not only has he campaigned on a message of change and hope, a message that would lose potency were he to resort to the old scare tactics, but he would risk a backlash among the voters he needs to alienate the least. Not only would Obama lose any chance of winning the white working-class vote — he might actually end up mobilizing them to come out in large numbers against him.

Given the relative difference in numbers between the white working class and black voters in general, this would be a deathly blow to the Obama campaign. So it remains to be seen how Obama will be able to get his core constituency to come out in large numbers, while remaining open and inclusive of all Americans. One thing’s for sure; if he’s successful, it will have been the tightrope walk of the century.

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