The Ruling Reverberates

Judging from the highly scientific review of the Facebook status updates of many of my friends — Republican and Democrat — yesterday’s Supreme Court ruling, which for the first time ruled on and clarified that the Second Amendment is a right extended to individuals, was highly anticipated and generated tremendous interest. But the question for a blog such as this one is, Will it make a difference in the elections?

The Democrats came out, guns blazing, trying to prove that Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) was a true gun rights supporter. Many even immediately began attacking Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) for perceived changes on guns. Interestingly, just as one of the contributors to this blog did, they attacked McCain from the RIGHT for wanting to make changes to how guns are purchased at gun shows.

As we have discussed before, you have to consider the micropolitics and the macropolitics to determine impact. Just as Peter Fenn did here on this blog, most Democrats immediately jumped to the macropolitics of the issue — who believed what on guns and who changed positions. But a closer look at the micropolitics shows where the true political opportunities lie.

Americans are divided on the issue of gun ownership, but those in favor of strong gun ownership rights are much more passionate about the issue. This ruling will not make a difference in the pre-election polls or the passion.

However, depending on demography and geography, this ruling provides an opportunity for McCain to make significant inroads. Back in the 2000 elections, Democratic activists were so concerned about their union members defecting to the Republican Party they began passing out fliers on election day that made blatantly false claims (to make Gore look stronger on guns) about then-nominee Al Gore’s gun stance to union members in Ohio and West Virginia.

To this day Democrats remain petrified of the gun ownership issue, especially when it comes to the he-man union members who care about social issues and gun ownership in addition to their local unions. Lately they’ve ignored the issue altogether or tried to blur the positions of the candidate. Until, you know, Obama so delicately referred to some of these same people as bitterly clinging to religion and guns. Those are the micropolitics where this ruling could aid McCain.

McCain does have an opportunity on the macropolitics side. But that opportunity has less to do with the issue of gun ownership than it does with how that issue helps the McCain camp build on the theme that Obama is a typical politician. As The Washington Post’s Howard Kurtz wrote about today, the Obama campaign has tied itself in knots making some fairly obviously false statements to present Obama as having a consistent position on gun ownership rights.

Where the gun issue makes an impact, it is advantage McCain.