Holding Serve

So Hillary Clinton held serve last night. She won in a state where she should have won, by a margin that was comfortable enough for her.

The good news for Sen. Clinton (D-N.Y.) is that her opponent, Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.), spent a lot of money to lose by nine points. The bad news is that he still has a lot of money.

Holding serve is not good enough for Clinton. She has to break Obama’s serve in North Carolina, and then hope that he pulls up lame before the convention. If not, he will win the nomination.

For the McCain campaign, the Democratic primary is a good place to observe where Obama is strong and where he is weak.

Obama has a strong serve. He is a good speaker on the stump. His speeches flow by with speed and grace. The rhetoric flows by so fast, you almost can’t catch up to it.

Obama also has strong ground strokes. He has raised more money than any other candidate in history, and he has done that by combining the power of the Internet with a clever viral marketing campaign that has energized the young and many baby boomers.

But Obama has a weak backhand. In fact, he has backhanded the traditional strength of the Democratic Party, the Reagan Democrats. He does poorly with senior citizens, with Catholics and with white ethnics. He will be weak in the Rust Belt, and he won’t do well in Appalachian areas, such as Kentucky, Tennessee and West Virginia. Republicans should still hold the Solid South and much of the West.

Obama also has little tournament experience. We don’t know how he will hold up under the pressure of a real campaign, with real issues. Hillary Clinton is reputedly a tough opponent, but she agrees with Obama on just about every issue.

This means three things for McCain.

First, he needs to study Obama’s viral marketing model closely. McCain will never be the young candidate, but he can’t afford to be the old candidate. He needs to gather together the best marketing minds out there to find other ways to market himself and to raise money.

Second, he needs to continue to target Catholic voters. They are the ultimate swing vote, and they are gettable for McCain.

Third, he needs to keep the pressure on Obama, especially on issues that haven’t been raised so far. This is Obama’s first visit to the big show. Let’s see how he reacts under pressure.

At the end of the day, Obama just needs to keep holding serve and he will beat Clinton. But it’s a new match with McCain, and I like the veteran’s chances.