Hillary Jumped to Go Negative Too Soon

Hillary’s momentum in Pennsylvania may have stalled, according to the most recent polling. If so, why? She jumped all over the Obama “bitter” comment the moment he said it. That meant that she probably didn’t poll it. With Penn sidelined, perhaps the campaign is not as poll-dependent as it once was. In any case, it appears not to have been that big a deal in a Democratic primary. After all, putting down gun owners and those who take strong stands against immigration, as well as religious people, is not all that bad among liberals.

But here’s the key point: Hillary only has enough media running in Pennsylvania to run one ad at a time. In putting on her negative ad, she had to shut down her positive advertising. Obama has enough media purchased to run three ads at once. So he can answer Hillary’s attack and still keep a steady diet of effective positive ads on the air. With Obama on the air with positive ads and Hillary on the air only with negatives, Obama has a clear edge.

Consider also that Hillary’s voters are downscale and older. That means that they decide later in the process for whom to vote. Obama’s positive media is hitting them just as they are making up their minds. And that may be producing a swing to Obama.