John McCain: Hardest to Beat?

Conventional wisdom has done so well this past year, why not keep it front and center!?

Giuliani was the clear front-runner, Fred Thompson was going to take off and capture the conservatives, Hillary Clinton was inevitable, Mike Huckabee was just a one-percenter, Romney was going to fill the void and succeed with his $40 million-plus infusion. You name it, pollsters and pundits got it wrong.

There is no question that John McCain has flipped conventional wisdom on its head by starting near the top of the heap and falling faster than a teenager on a water slide, then staging a comeback with little money or institutional support.

So now we are back in conventional wisdom mode once again. McCain is the 800-pound gorilla and, even though he has those pesky right-wingers like Coulter and Limbaugh after him, he is the man to capture the center and win in November.

Maybe. Maybe not. One could make the convincing argument that McCain could be the Bob Dole of 2008. Insider. Older. Past, not future. Not much excitement.

Not to mention that his weak spot, he admits, is the economy, about which he knows little and seems to care less. McCain has real problems not just with his base but among the moderates he is trying to convince with his contradictory statements and votes on taxes, spending (unlimited war funding and even the immigration bill costs), and simply managing the economic house.

With the country heading into a tailspin, this is a plane he doesn’t have a plan for how to even out and fly right. My guess is that he will not inspire confidence among voters with their fears about foreclosure, job loss, meeting the monthly bills. He would rather talk about the fear of Islamic extremists, not the pocketbook fears.

Speaking of foreign policy, there may be various approaches to extricating ourselves from Iraq, but one approach that won’t sit well with the American people is the notion that we will be there for 100 years. Most Americans want this problem solved too and understand that this is about political solutions within Iraq, not a permanent occupying force of soldiers who become increasingly confused and frustrated with their mission.

John McCain may try and pull a Bush with a 9/11 message again, but any Democratic candidate who allows him to get away with that shouldn’t be on the ballot. My guess is that neither Hillary nor Barack will be fooled by that strategy.

Finally, John McCain may not have the temperament for a long, tough campaign in which he is being challenged in the political arena. His fuse is short, his tolerance for the ins and outs of political back and forth is minimal, and his propensity for lashing out is well known.

At the end of the day, John McCain may be easier to defeat than many of the press and pundits believe. Of course, I am assuming that Democrats are aggressive and dogged in their desire to take him on in the campaign. Our past record on that score has not been exactly sterling. But, no question, I think we’re ready this time.