My Three Takes on Super Tuesday

1. A Relatively Small Percentage Difference in Delegates Either Way

3. If You Want Both on One Ticket, Vote for Hillary

(Author’s Note: Mr. Davis is a supporter of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton’s, D-N.Y., but is not a campaign official and the following is his own opinion, uninformed by any Clinton campaign information and totally his own and no one else’s.)

1. Margin of Difference Within 5% Either Way

This is because of two facts about the Democratic system that are not well appreciated by the average voter:

First, the results of election of delegates are all approximately proportionalized by the percentage of the popular vote won, i.e., the winner of a particular state is likely to get the percentage of delegates close to the actual proportion of the popular vote; and second, the total delegates to be divvied up are, on average, 80 percent of the total 2,064 delegates available in the 22 states. The other 20 percent are “superdelegates” who can vote whichever way they want up to the ballot-casting at the August Democratic Convention. So the total pool of delegates actually elected and subject to proportional allocation is probably about 1,600. Thus, even if one of the candidates has a margin of delegates over the other of 80 delegates, that will still be a margin of just 5 percent.

2. It May Come Down to Seating Florida and Michigan Delegations — Or Not

If the rest of the Democratic primary and caucuses result in a relatively small differential in delegate count for the same reasons, and the superdelegates split 50-50 (which would mean a substantial advance for Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., over the current totals of committed superdelegates favoring Sen. Clinton), then we could be looking at a bloody floor fight in Denver that could determine the nomination over whether to seat the Michigan and Florida delegates. Currently they are barred because they broke Democratic National Committee rules on scheduling their primaries before Feb. 5.

Such a seating-floor fight could be reminiscent of the divisive and self-destructive fight at the 1968 Democratic National Convention over the seating of the Chicago delegation; or a similar fight in 1964 over seating of the all-white, segregationist Mississippi delegation. Many believe the Democrats lost the election to Richard Nixon thanks in large part to the 1968 fight.

It is certainly possible that Sen. Clinton’s delegates will favor seating Florida and Michigan. If Sen. Obama is slightly ahead, he will be on the horns of a difficult dilemma. If he opposes seating Florida and Michigan, he risks alienating voters in two important states he will need in the general election. But if he does not oppose seating them, they are likely to support Sen. Clinton and could well give her the margin of victory.

Stand by. If you care about the Democratic Party’s chances to win in November, pray that it doesn’t come down to this kind of bloodletting fight at the convention.

3. If You Want the ‘Dream Ticket,’ Then Vote for Hillary

I admit my bias towards Sen. Clinton because I believe so strongly she is more experienced and ready to be president than Sen. Obama, although I am not bashful to say I hold Sen. Obama in great esteem and admire the way he has energized younger voters.

Watching both of them in last Friday night’s debate discussing the issues civilly and virtually embracing after the debate was over, I was proud to be a Democrat and to have two such outstanding candidates. However, the final question by Wolf Blitzer as to whether they would consider the other on the ticket begged the following reality. (To repeat: This is entirely my opinion, not reflecting anyone’s view from the Clinton campaign or anyone connected to the campaign.)

That reality is that it is highly unlikely — I would say virtually impossible — for the ticket to be Obama-Clinton; but it is at least possible that it could be Clinton-Obama. I say this not because of any bias towards Sen. Clinton. It is just a simple reality. Sen. Clinton would not likely want to be vice president — she is now holding the U.S. Senate seat of the revered Sen. Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and she hardly would enthusiastically give up that Senate seat to go back to the White House, even as vice president.

Moreover, it is very likely Sen. Obama might feel having Sen. Clinton as his vice president would be very difficult since, given her fame and political influence, it would create the appearance (if not the reality) of a co-presidency.

On the other hand, a Clinton-Obama ticket would fit into the aspirations and goals of many supporters of both candidates: Most Clinton supporters like Sen. Obama and believe he could make a good president, just not yet; and most Obama supporters would love to see him as president but might see the wisdom of waiting eight years so when he runs for president as vice president, the issue of experience and political maturity will not be a factor.

So, if you like Sen. Obama but want the dream ticket, vote for Sen. Clinton! And be patient — eight years from now, he could be President Obama.