An Uneasy Coalition

The tense back-and-forth between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama exposes the fragile foundation upon which the Democratic Party is built.

The Democrats have always been a coalition of tribes. First, it was the old FDR coalition of white ethnics like the Irish and Italians, aligned with Southern whites who couldn’t get over Lincoln and the Civil War, and some blacks, although not all of them. It has gradually evolved to become the party of women, blacks, Hispanics and Jewish-Americans. Ethnic men and white Southerners have largely emigrated to the Republican Party.

The tension between these groups is usually exposed during redistricting battles. Seats are carved out for black and Hispanic members, and Jewish members (especially in California and New York City) have to fight hard to protect their districts.

The most interesting development in the Democratic Party over the last 20 years is the ascendancy of the female politician. Women made up more than 60 percent of caucus-goers in Iowa and they blew away all predictions in New Hampshire when they dominated the primary voting (with 57 percent of the vote) and stopped the Obama campaign in its tracks.

Female politicians now basically run the Democratic Party. Nancy Pelosi (Calif.), the first female Speaker, runs the House with an iron-fist. California Sens. Barbara Boxer and Dianne Feinstein and a long list of other female members provide the emotional firepower for the Democrats in the Senate.

And of course, Hillary Clinton is still the presumptive presidential nominee for the Democratic Party.

Which, of course, leads to the current tension between Hillary and Obama. While Hillary represents the currently dominant wing of the Democratic Party, Obama represents its most loyal faction. While Republicans can count on getting at least 40 percent of the female vote, they can usually count on getting less than 10 percent of the black vote.

The female vote is split on this very question within the Democratic Party. Oprah Winfrey embodies this tension perfectly. She chose Obama over Hillary, and in my view provided the critical help to her candidate in Iowa. No Oprah in New Hampshire meant no win for Obama.

Republicans tend to fight more over beliefs than over ethnicity. Whether it be Rudy Giuliani’s abortion position, Mike Huckabee’s view on taxes, John McCain’s immigration position, or Mitt Romney’s habit of flip-flopping, it really doesn’t matter to Republicans what tribe you belong to. For Republicans, it is all about the issues.

But for Democrats, it is not about the content of your message. They pretty much all agree on the importance of raising taxes and expanding government. For Democrats, it is more a matter of what group you belong to. And that explains why Hillary and Obama have been so testy with each other lately.