A Choice Now for Democrats

Are you over the shock of Tuesday yet? Will we ever believe polls again?

I was fascinated by the results of Hillary Clinton’s New Hampshire victory because while they differ from Iowa, they mirror the model we saw all year in the national polls. Women who are older or younger, often unmarried and without children, and those earning lower incomes back Clinton. The book-clubbers like Obama. Not, however, in Iowa, where he won women hands-down. Now that Obama is at parity with Clinton, will the Iowa model or the New Hampshire model determine the outcome of the other primary contests?

I wrote a column about how sad and poignant it was to watch the Clintons resist this powerful passing-of-the-torch moment, Bill especially. But that was written before Tuesday night, so on Wednesday I had to scrap it. In light of the surprising result, my new column is about the direction the party will take and whether it will choose the stability and security Clinton provides or the uncertain but invigorating hope Obama offers. Will a machine stop a movement?

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