Texas Hold ‘Em

As a fan of the various poker shows that dot cable television, I can’t help but think that the Republican primary resembles a six-handed high-stakes Texas Hold ’Em tournament. The media is fixated on who wins the hand, but the real game is much more complicated than that.

Mitt Romney came into the game with the most chips (i.e., the most money), so all the other players see him as the biggest threat.

Mike Huckabee and John McCain have gone all-in in consecutive primaries, and have won big pots, but they had the fewest chips, so while their victories have kept them in the game, they still have a long road to the nomination.

Rudy Giuliani, who had the second biggest stack, has folded the first two hands quickly, content to see others challenge the chip leader. Giuliani achieved two objectives in New Hampshire by barely edging out Ron Paul but not doing well enough to take votes away from McCain. He has already announced that he won’t play until the big blind comes his way (i.e., Florida).

Fred Thompson played long enough in Iowa to capture third, but he made the smart play by folding quickly in New Hampshire. His all-in moment will be in South Carolina.

The wildcard is Ron Paul, who unexpectedly came to the table with a lot of chips, but looks like he has never played poker before. But don’t discount him completely. While he probably won’t win, his unorthodox playing style can be deadly to a player who doesn’t pay attention.

Romney can stay in the game because he still has a lot of chips. But his playing style has irked the rest of the table, and it has become personal. Each of the other players wants to force Romney out of the game.

At the end of the day, Iowa and New Hampshire were small pots with few delegates at stake. The big pots (the rich delegate states) come on Super Tuesday. Giuliani thinks he has the right cards to win New Jersey, Illinois and California. Huckabee and Thompson both think they have the cards to win in the South. McCain had the right cards to win New Hampshire. Where can he replicate that formula of attracting independent voters and enough Republicans who will overlook his position on immigration?

That leaves Romney. He still has a lot of chips, but his small-state strategy failed. Can he change his message to compete for the big pots? That is still an open question.