Two Comeback Stories

The results in New Hampshire last night demonstrate yet again why politics is an art, not a science. The unlikely victories of John McCain and Hillary Clinton give fresh testimony to Howard Cosell’s sage observation, “That’s why they play the games.” (Supply your own New York accent here.)

For McCain, the victory represents a stunning comeback after his campaign nearly imploded last July. He pulled himself off the mat, dramatically slimmed down his campaign operation, and retooled his message to focus paradoxically on his maverick reputation AND his foreign policy experience: Mr. Outside and Mr. Inside in the same package. His victory creates a path to the nomination that runs through Michigan, South Carolina and then Florida, with South Carolina being the most important.

The Hillary Clinton victory has caused many predictors to eat outsized portions of crow, including yours truly. The fact that the Clinton campaign itself was in panic mode before the results yesterday tells you how shocking her victory was. The explanation after the fact seems to be that Democratic primary voters, especially women, did not want the race to end so soon, as it might have with a big Obama victory, and they cast a vote for the Clintons one more time. Her future course is also challenging, especially in South Carolina, where its large black voting population should make Obama a favorite in that pivotal state.

But for now, it looks like both races will be unsettled as we approach Super Duper Tuesday on Feb. 5. That means more participation in more states and more time for the voters to evaluate the candidates.