Unconventional Wisdom

As a natural contrarian, here are some things that are being missed in the current media frenzy:

• Obama’s lead in New Hampshire is based on two things: an improbable bounce from an Iowa caucus that was overrun by young people and a huge number of independent voters in the Granite State. Hillary Clinton shouldn’t panic or prematurely quit the race. Obama does very poorly with older voters. Clinton should pound Obama on his Social Security stance and turn out the old fogies. History proves they turn out to vote more than the youngsters.

• Only one candidate has had a long-term plan to lose both Iowa and New Hampshire and to ultimately win the nomination. That candidate is Rudy Giuliani. In the heat of these two early battles, it may have seemed like a risky strategy, but after Romney and McCain beat each other up in New Hampshire, look for Rudy to pick up the pieces.

• There will be a temptation to paint Hillary’s crying episode as another Muskie moment, and I admit that I fell into that temptation myself. But I would be interested to see how female voters react to that show of emotion. They may react positively, which would give the Clinton campaign a vital jolt.

• Edwards is still the guy I fear the most. If it becomes a binary choice between Edwards and Obama, I can see a dynamic where the Democrats start thinking more about winnability and less about likability.

• Romney has finally found a message. Washington is broken and he can fix it. Has he found this message too late? We will find that out tomorrow.