McCain vs. Obama

Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) will be well on his way to winning the Democratic nomination with a victory in New Hampshire. As the saying goes, “Iowa sends a message. New Hampshire picks presidents.” Since the advent of the Iowa caucuses in 1972, the only two non-incumbents to win both Iowa and New Hampshire (Al Gore in 2000 and John Kerry in ’04) both went on to easy nomination victories. An Obama win makes him the overwhelming favorite to win the Democratic nomination.

The question for Republicans now is, Who can give this most appealing Illinois senator a real run for his money? The operating assumption among Republicans has been that their nominee would face Hillary Clinton, who would automatically unite the party and fire up the base. That scenario will soon be history and Republicans must ask this question: Who matches up best against the candidate with the Big Mo right now?

Mitt Romney (after New Hampshire) and Fred Thompson both face longs odds to win the nomination and will need lightning to strike to get back into the conversation. As candidates who have built their appeal mostly around ideology, they would be hard-pressed to tackle a candidate like Obama, whose appeal is not primarily ideological. Republicans will not defeat Barack Obama by calling him a liberal.

Mike Huckabee has exceeded all expectations for his candidacy thus far. He is a decent and passionate advocate for the “little guy” and exudes an economic populism that could make him attractive to the blue-collar and middle-income voters who found Ronald Reagan so appealing a generation ago. However, his candidacy is so identified with religion that he would be a very hard sell to secular voters. He also draws hostility from small-government conservatives. His appeal is primarily south of the Mason Dixon line and east of the Mississippi. What blue states could Huckabee really put in play?

Rudy Giuliani on paper is thought to be the most electable Republican. But his hard-nosed New York style is a much better match for Hillary Clinton than for the smooth-talking, upbeat Obama. Rudy runs second only to Hillary in his high negative ratings from voters. Though he would run moderately better in deep blue states like New York, Connecticut and New Jersey, he would probably lose those states anyway and he could face a conservative revolt for his very liberal stands on social issues.

That leaves John McCain, the oldest and wisest of the Republican candidates. He would present the starkest contrast with the youthful and untested Democrat. Obama is the sizzle, McCain the steak. Obama employs the soaring rhetoric of change, McCain has the lessons and scars of 20 years of fighting for change. Obama is a blank slate on foreign affairs and crisis management, McCain has been tested many times and possesses an encyclopedic knowledge of foreign affairs and the key players in world politics. Only McCain can unite the Reagan coalition and add independent and moderate voters to put Midwestern and Rocky Mountain blue states in play.

Who is best prepared to manage foreign policy and defend America from radical Islam? Come November, the answer for the public will be easy.